Nvidia tops $4T — Is the bull market just getting started?

Market Outlook & Strategy - Carson Group maintains a bullish outlook, anticipating a 12-15% gain for the S&P 500 by year-end, despite potential risks [19][24] - The firm advocates for diversification ("When in doubt, diversify it out") and has shifted some US equity exposure to developed international markets [13][14] - The market's current "sweet spot" (S&P 500 up 5-10% mid-year) historically suggests further gains in the second half [21][22] - Carson Group is overweight equities relative to bonds, expecting interest rates to remain somewhat elevated due to increased spending and deficits [35] Economic Factors & Fed Policy - The strategist believes the economy is stronger than perceived, with potential for earnings to exceed expectations [25] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's actions, with potential market sensitivity to the Fed not cutting rates as much as anticipated [6][7] - While a 25 or 50 basis point cut may not significantly impact the market, a 300 basis point cut could signal economic distress [37][38] - High deficits, currently around 6.5% of GDP and potentially rising, historically haven't always negatively impacted markets [35][36] Sector & Investment Opportunities - Technology sector's resurgence, exemplified by Nvidia's $4 trillion market cap, signals a healthy bull market with broad participation [2][39] - Financials are highlighted as an underappreciated sector, with banks having delivered strong earnings [45] - Small and mid-cap stocks are considered potentially undervalued, especially in comparison to Europe, which has seen significant gains [54][55] Risks & Concerns - Potential risks include trade developments, the impact of tariffs on consumers (expected in the second half of the year), and a slowing economy [5][28][29] - August and September are historically prone to market hiccups, suggesting a potential correction in the fall [53] - Overly negative sentiment is not currently a major concern, as hedge funds remain net short and sentiment indicators are mixed [50][51]