RBC's Cassidy expects median EPS and capital markets revenue to grow in this round of bank eanrings

Market Expectations & Potential Catalysts - Optimism is high for large-cap banks' Q2 earnings, with focus on loan growth and investment banking activity in the second half of the year [2][3] - IPO market recovery is seen as a potential catalyst for investment banks [3] - High valuations (e g, Bank of America trading at a PE of around 15) suggest caution going into earnings announcements [4] - Regulatory changes are a significant driver for bank stock movements this year [6] Key Metrics & Risk Factors - Net interest income growth, impacted by net interest margin, is a key focus [9] - Credit quality remains generally good, but commercial real estate office market and low FICO score consumers are potential areas of concern [8] - Risk-on sentiment suggests less concern about credit picture, while risk-off would increase focus on credit [7][8] Mergers and Acquisitions - Industry expects consolidation among regional banks due to deregulation [13] - The top 5-7 banks control 85-90% of the assets, with smaller banks controlling the rest, indicating increased polarization in banking [14] - Potential for big regionals to merge or be acquired by G-SIBs exists [15] - Clarity on Basel III endgame proposal is needed before M&A activity accelerates [15] Leadership Transition - Jamie Dimon's leadership has significantly impacted JP Morgan's stock [10] - Jamie Dimon's eventual retirement will likely negatively impact the stock on the day of the announcement [12] - Marianne Lake is considered a potential successor to Jamie Dimon [11]