AI and Tech Industry Trends - AI is expected to drive profound changes in the economy over the next 15 to 20 years, with the industry still in its early stages [2] - Nvidia continues to penetrate the market with a huge growth opportunity [3] - The US has a substantial lead in AI hardware, as evidenced by China's willingness to use Nvidia's "junior varsity chips" as a key negotiating piece [4] - US companies have a clear lead in AI technology, and global demand is expected to continue [8] - Tech companies generally have best-in-class profit margins and cash flows, providing stability and clarity for investors [9] Market Dynamics and Investment Considerations - Short-term ebbs and flows are expected in the supply chain [2] - Tech is viewed as a combination of growth and safety [3] - Tech sector demonstrates above-market growth rates [9] - Investors appreciate the predictability and safety of tech companies [9] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The 30-year Treasury yield above 5% is not yet a warning signal, but something to monitor [12] - The 10-year Treasury yield has been oscillating between 45% and 475% [13] - A 10-year Treasury yield above 48% or 49% would warrant reassessment [14] Alternative Asset Management - There are $125 trillion in assets sitting in 401(k)s, so even a small penetration represents meaningful flows for alternative asset managers [10] - Changes in the capital regime may lead big banks to re-enter the alternative asset management market [11]
Janvier: The tech trade by and large is being driven by AI, and it's here to stay