散户疯狂、科技巨头分化，AI推动的美股牛市到顶了吗？【101Weekly】

Market Overview & Economic Indicators - US stock market experienced a sell-off on August 1st, with the total market value decreasing by over $1 trillion [1] - The collapse of US employment data, specifically non-farm payroll data, triggered the sell-off [2][3] - July's non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 104,000, and previous months' data were revised downwards substantially [4][5] - Market worried about the reliability of official US statistics after potential director firing [7] AI Investment & Impact - AI capital expenditure (Capex) continues to reach new highs, with Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon predicting nearly $400 billion in total investment this year, mainly for AI infrastructure [14] - Meta and Microsoft's annual capital expenditure to sales ratio has reached 35%, with most of it invested in AI [15] - AI is driving growth for companies like Meta, with a 20% year-on-year increase in user video viewing time on Instagram due to AI-optimized recommendation algorithms [16] - Microsoft's cloud business Azure's annual revenue exceeded $75 billion, a 34% increase over the previous fiscal year, driven by huge demand for AI services [18][19] Cloud Computing & Competition - Amazon's AWS financial report was disappointing, with 17.5% year-on-year growth falling short of the expected 18% [21][22] - Amazon CEO admitted to a supply bottleneck in AI computing power, with electricity being the biggest constraint [25] - Coatue's report indicates Amazon's share of Nvidia chips in 2025 will be 20%, lower than its 44% market share in cloud computing [28] Market Valuation & Risks - QQQ's valuation is at 27x, which is considered high compared to the peak in 2020 and the first half of 2021 [34] - Retail investor sentiment has exceeded historical levels, approaching the levels of 2021 [35] - Tariffs are a risk, potentially causing price increases and affecting American consumption [38] Future Outlook & Differentiation - The profitability of AI may not arrive until 2028, indicating a "bitter first, sweet later" profit curve [42] - Market dominance is diverging among M7 companies, with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia in the positive return group, while Amazon, Google, Tesla, and Apple are in the negative return group [43] - The market is shifting from "M7 as a whole rises" to "the real beneficiaries of AI lead the rise", with intensifying market differentiation [44]