Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon on semiconductor tariffs, impact on sector and AMD Q2 results

Tariff & Trade Policy - US is expected to announce tariffs on semiconductors and chips to incentivize domestic production [2] - Semiconductors have been mostly excluded from previous tariff announcements but are now under investigation [3] - The investigation results are expected in the next week or two [4] - The structure of the tariffs is unknown, but may include component-level tariffs on semiconductors within imported devices [5][6] - Investors have generally been dismissing tariff announcements, but these new tariffs may have a more significant impact [7] - The magnitude of disruption depends on the implementation and level of tariffs [8] - Tariffs, as part of a well-structured trade policy, may have their place, but the current application is questionable [9] Semiconductor Market & Company Performance - Approximately $45 billion of raw semiconductors were imported last year [4] - An estimated $60 billion of semiconductors entered the US within smartphones [5] - Semiconductor prices have increased by 50% over the last 5 years [7] - AMD's AI revenues were down due to China export controls [11] - AMD's Q2 result was a slight beat and raise at least on revenue, but the revenue came from gaming [12] - AMD's AI piece within data center was probably in line, but not enough for a stock that's up almost 80% over the last three months [13] - AMD's spending is increasing, limiting EPS leverage [14]