Obesity pill orders are still an incredible opportunity for pharma, says Goldman's Asad Haider

Eli Lilly's Stock Performance & Market Reaction - Eli Lilly's stock tumbled to its lowest level since January 2024 despite beating estimates and raising guidance for the latest quarter [1] - The stock reaction is attributed to trial data for its oral obesity pill, Clipperon, missing Wall Street's expectations [5] - Goldman Sachs views the stock reaction as overdone, considering the drug commercially viable [6] Oral Obesity Pill Trial Results & Expectations - The goal was to create a convenient oral pill for the mass market with weight loss competitive with other single-acting GLP1s [2] - Wall Street expected weight loss closer to the mid-teens, around 14-15%, but the trial results were just shy of that [6] - The Attain One trial for the oral obesity pill missed the "bar" [5] - The company frames the tolerability as in line with or trending towards bull-case expectations, with no significant new events in terms of nausea or vomiting [10] Commercial Viability & Market Opportunity - The oral obesity pill is still considered commercially viable and will have a place in the large obesity market [7] - The oral obesity market may see a repricing, potentially shifting opportunity from Eli Lilly's gipperon to Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide [12] - The overall obesity opportunity remains significant, with about 100 million obese people in the US and 900 million overseas, with low penetration rates for GLP-1 drugs [13] - Current GLP-1 drugs are only 3% penetrated in the US, with expectations of reaching 15% by 2030 [13]