Leerink's Risinger on Eli Lilly downgrade: Triggered by disappointing obesity pill results

Analyst Actions & Forecasts - Link Partners downgraded Eli Lilly (LLY) to market perform from outperform [1] - Link Partners lowered the price target for Eli Lilly from $944 to $715 [1] - Link Partners reduced 2030 orforglipron sales estimate from approximately $22 billion to $14 billion [3] - The analyst still expects orforglipron to be a mega-blockbuster drug [3] Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk is a wounded competitor in the obesity drug market duopoly and may resort to price competition [4][5] - Emerging competitors with novel therapies will increase market competition by the end of the decade [5] - Several companies are developing obesity assets in late-stage clinical development, including Amgen, AstraZeneca, Roche, Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), Viking Therapeutics, and Metacrine (META) [9] Market Access & Coverage - Employer coverage of anti-obesity medicines has not expanded significantly in the past 18 months and may not do so in the next 6 months [6] - Approximately 50 to 55 million commercial lives have coverage for anti-obesity medicines [7] - High-margin employers are more likely to offer coverage for these medications, while middle and low-margin employers may not have the financial resources due to the high prevalence of obesity [7]