深聊GPT-5发布：过度营销的反噬与AI技术突破的困局

GPT-5 Release & Technical Analysis - GPT-5's release is considered a refinement rather than a revolutionary step compared to GPT-4, failing to deliver the expected "ChatGPT moment" [1] - OpenAI's GPT-5 uses a "Real-time Model Router" to integrate different sub-models, which is not a novel technological breakthrough [1] - The industry speculates that the end-to-end training super-large model route has reached its peak, leading OpenAI to use "tricky" technologies to solve product-level problems [1] - OpenAI faces challenges in balancing system cost, development, and application, especially in handling high-frequency, simple user queries [1] - Model training for GPT-5 began early in 2024, but the model was only officially named GPT-5 after reaching a major milestone [4] - Scaling Law has hit a wall due to a lack of high-quality and diverse human-generated data, delaying OpenAI's Orion project [12] - Model training often leads to model crashes, including "catastrophic forgetting" during reinforcement learning [15] Market & Application - OpenAI is targeting education, programming, and healthcare as the three main battlefields for commercialization [2] - The market is questioning how much share of the education market ChatGPT will grab, impacting companies like Duolingo [2] - The global AI medical market is predicted to soar from US$2669 million in 2024 to US$18838 million in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 3862% [3] - OpenAI's GPT-5 demonstrates a significant upgrade in coding capabilities, leading to a new round of competition in the coding market [3] Future Development & Alternatives - Reinforcement learning, multimodal capabilities, and exploring alternative framework paradigms are key to optimizing cutting-edge large models [20] - Multimodality and world models will be crucial to the future development of AI, with a focus on video and world models [27][31] - Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) aims to overcome the limitations of large language models and advance AI towards understanding the physical world [38][39]