Bloomberg Technology·2025-08-11 18:18US-China Trade Relations & Semiconductor Industry Impact - The discussion revolves around the implications of potential trade restrictions and export licenses on US semiconductor companies, specifically NVIDIA and AMD, in relation to their access to the Chinese market [1][2][7] - Concerns exist regarding a potential "quid pro quo" arrangement, where companies might be required to concede a percentage (15%) of revenue in exchange for export licenses to China [2][3][4] - The industry worries about the precedent this sets and the potential for it to expand to other products and companies beyond AI [2] - The long-term impact on NVIDIA and AMD's access to the Chinese market is questioned, considering the current US sentiment towards China [7][8] Competitive Landscape & Market Dynamics - The importance of maintaining a presence in the Chinese market to compete with local alternatives like Huawei is highlighted [2][10] - Concerns are raised that restrictions on US companies could lead to Chinese developers coalescing around local alternatives [10] - Over time, the performance gap between products NVIDIA and AMD can sell in China versus the rest of the world may widen due to restrictions [10][11] - China's local products are improving, potentially becoming more competitive with restricted NVIDIA and AMD offerings [10][11] Company Strategies & Government Relations - NVIDIA has a roadmap with products that are supposedly compliant and don't require a license for sale in China [8] - AMD's future China roadmaps are less clear [9] - AMD believes the US government is trying to find a balance between national security and ensuring the proliferation of US AI technologies [13] - AMD CEO Lisa Su is perceived to be effectively building relationships with the US administration [14][16]