Supply Chain Shift - US tariffs on Chinese goods led to a dramatic supply chain shift in the video game console industry [1] - China's share of US console imports decreased from nearly 90% to less than 5% due to tariffs as high as 88% [2] - Vietnam's share of US console imports increased to 75% or more with tariffs of about 10% or less [2] - Vietnamese manufacturers' monthly exports of video game consoles to the US increased from less than 30 million USD to over 400 million USD [3] Production and Investment - Key suppliers for Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo have been building or acquiring new factories and warehouse space in Vietnam since early 2024 [3] - Analysts predict that production lines will not revert back to China, even if the tariffs disappear [3] Market Impact - US holiday shoppers may not have noticed the supply chain realignment because store shelves have remained stocked [4] - Consumers may have noticed price increases on some older video game console models due to the tariffs [4]

Investment & Expansion - Microsoft pledged $17.5 billion (175 亿) towards AI and cloud computing in India [1] - Amazon plans a $35 billion (350 亿) investment in India, including AI [2] - Google committed $15 billion (150 亿) to build an AI hub in India [2] AI Development & User Acquisition - AI companies are aggressively trying to win users in India [3] - Open AAI, Google, Microsoft and Perplexity are offering their premium subscription plans for free to Indian students, developers and users [4] Strategic Focus - India is becoming central to the future plans of tech giants due to its scale, talent, and data [4] - Microsoft plans to equip 20 million (2000 万) Indians with essential AI skills by 2030 [4]

Investigation and Suspicion - An investigation is reportedly underway regarding the potential diversion of NVIDIA GPUs to China via Megaspeed, despite denials from both NVIDIA and Megaspeed [1][6] - Southeast Asian governments and Washington are examining potential significant activities related to NVIDIA chips and Chinese entities [2][3] - Suspicion exists regarding links and control within data centers serving Chinese customers, particularly concerning entities with potential ties to the Chinese military or banned entities in the US [4][5] - There's a lack of clarity in the relationships between individuals in China and the destination of NVIDIA chips [5] Regulatory Environment and Market Access - Since 2022, a sophistication has emerged in exporting NVIDIA chips to China through other Asian companies [3] - NVIDIA faces the challenge of ensuring compliance with US regulations while serving Chinese customers [4][5] - NVIDIA aims to conduct business directly in China, but current restrictions prevent this [8] - The US government has moved from restrictive rules to freeing up some of them, but this hasn't yet translated into shipments to the Chinese market [9] Future Prospects and Uncertainties - The potential for NVIDIA to gain more access to the Chinese market with H-200 chips is being discussed, but demand from China and Megaspeed remains uncertain [7] - It remains to be seen whether China wants to do business directly with NVIDIA and at what level of demand [8] - Stories about potential smuggling raise concerns about security and caution in dealing with China and Chinese entities [9]

LET’S GO BACK TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THESE WILL GET THROUGH APPROVAL. START WITH PARAMOUNT BUYING WARNER BROTHERS DISCOVERY. DOES IT CUT LEGAL MUSTER.FIONA: ALL THREE OF THE BIDDERS, THERE WAS COMCAST TO BEGIN WITH, HAVE OVERLAPS WITH WARNER BROTHERS. IF YOU THINK ABOUT THREE BUCKETS OF CONTENT PRODUCTION, STREAMING, AND THEN CHANNELS OR NETWORKS. THEY ALL OVERLAP.AND PARAMOUNT IN PARTICULAR HAS A LOT OF PRODUCTION STUDIO KINDS OF ASSETS. PARTICULARLY BECAUSE PARAMOUNT MERGED WITH SKYDANCE FIRST. THAT’S A ...

2025 was supposed to be a big year for crypto with a friendly administration in the White House and more financial firms embracing digital assets, but it didn’t work out for all investors. Stillmark Managing Partner Alyse Killeen discusses what went well for the industry and what it will push for in 2026. She joins Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Tech." -------- Like this video? Subscribe to Bloomberg Technology on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrM7B7SL_g1edFOnmj-SDKg Watch the latest full episodes ...

Mergers and Acquisitions in Hollywood - Paramount's pursuit of Warner Bros is driven by a desire to quickly become a major player in Hollywood, aiming to transform from a relatively minor entity to a significant force [3][4] - Netflix's potential acquisition of a studio like Warner Bros could solidify its dominance in the entertainment industry, marking a crowning achievement in its evolution [5] - The battle for Warner Bros is seen as defining the future of Hollywood, with the victor shaping the industry's direction [6] Financial Aspects of Potential Deals - The financing structure of potential deals, particularly between Paramount/Skydance and Netflix, is a key consideration for shareholders [8] - A Netflix deal is perceived as "cleaner" due to bank involvement and less shareholder dilution compared to a potential deal involving Larry Ellison [9] - The actual dollar amounts of the deals are considered fairly comparable, especially when factoring in the potential spin-off of CNN assets [10] - Paramount may need to offer an additional $2-3 billion to outbid Netflix for Warner Bros [13] The Decline of Cable and Rise of Streaming - Traditional cable assets are facing a decline, with consumers seeking choice and lower costs, leading to cord-cutting [18] - Cable's failure to adapt to a lower-cost model has contributed to its decline, as consumers now spend more on various streaming subscriptions [18] - The future of entertainment is not in cable, as evidenced by the increasing popularity of platforms like YouTube [19] Investment Strategies - The firm invests in both individual equities and bonds to potentially achieve better returns and reduce costs for clients [20][21] - Investing in bonds of companies whose equity is already owned is seen as a way to generate income, especially in tax-advantaged accounts [22][23] - Netflix bonds, previously offering yields around 6-65%, are considered a solid investment [23]

Mergers and Acquisitions in Media and Entertainment - Paramount's Sky Dance amended its bid for Warner Bros Discovery, including a personal financial guarantee from Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison to ensure the $40 billion is available [1][5] - Netflix is also in the running to acquire Warner Bros Discovery, leading to a bidding war [5][49] - The value of cable networks is a key point of contention between potential acquirers like Netflix and Paramount, as Netflix would likely spin them off [8][9][14][16] - Potential regulatory concerns exist regarding who ends up owning CNN [13] - Warner Bros Discovery may make out nicely in the deal, as historically sellers in media deals tend to benefit more than buyers [22] AI and Technology - Chinese chipmakers are rushing to IPOs amid the country's push for technological self-reliance, with potential to rival NVIDIA [1][33][34] - China is investing heavily in domestic chip companies, with Bloomberg reporting up to $70 billion for semiconductors [34] - Google is buying Intersect Power for $4.7 billion in cash plus existing debt to develop clean energy for its data centers [27] - New York has signed a bill into law restricting the most advanced AI, making it the second state to pass AI curbs [1][65] Market Trends and Analysis - The NASDAQ 100 is up 4/10 of a percent, reflecting a spectacular year driven by Big Tech and AI [2] - Big Tech companies are increasingly investing in clean energy to power their data centers [3][28] - AI is rewriting how content is created and monetized, leading to legal ramifications regarding intellectual property [56][59][60] - The pace of innovation in AI is accelerating, with Gemini Three representing a significant step in performance [80]

Market Performance & Trends - The current market cycle is described as the most robust in over 30 years [1] - The SOX (Semiconductor Index) is up 42%, the overall index is up 21%, while the IG index (software) is only up 76% [2] - In 2025, performance was focused on optical memory, quantum computing, major semiconductor companies (Avago, Broadcom, NVIDIA, AMD), and cloud titans like Alibaba and Google [3] - The Street is not looking around the corner, and the market is currently in a state of overexuberant speculation and complacency [3] Concerns & Potential Headwinds - There are concerns that what worked in 2025 may not work in 2026 [6] - With NVIDIA shares up 300%, there are worries about pricing and potential shortages in the semiconductor supply chain [4] - DRAM prices were up 20% sequentially in Micron's last report, indicating a potential price issue [4] - Dell's CEO indicated potential shortage issues [5] Future Outlook & Investment Strategies - A pivot to software in the late 2027-2028 timeframe is worth considering, specifically agenda and security names which have recently corrected [6]

Data Center & AI Infrastructure - US GDP growth has been significantly driven by data center buildout, accounting for approximately 1% to 1.6% in the last year, with projections of 3% for the next year [1] - Data center buildout is largely funded by debt, with debt financing accounting for about 60% to 70% [1] - Startups rely on these data centers to run AI, making the health of these data centers crucial for GPU availability [3] - Concerns exist regarding Oracle's ability to repay its debt, as indicated by the credit default swap (CDS) spread growing to around 150%, nearing junk levels [4] - The primary AI applications currently revolve around text, with video expected to significantly increase AI demand, potentially by 100 to 1000 times the current consumption [6][7] AI Innovation & Market Dynamics - Major hyperscalers are still two years out on their GPUs, while smaller GPU data center companies (Neo clouds) are experiencing rapid growth [6] - AI companies are experiencing unprecedented growth rates, achieving 0 to 100 million in run rate within a year [12] - The pace of AI model sophistication is accelerating, with Gemini three representing the single largest step function in performance ever [13] Regulatory Landscape - Regulatory capture, where larger companies benefit from regulation due to their greater resources, is a concern [9] - Simple regulations at a high level with a single regulatory body are preferred to allow startups to thrive [10] - The federal government is expected to pass an overarching regulatory regime to simplify and eliminate state regulations, reducing the cost of doing business and boosting US competitiveness [11]

Disney and OpenAI Partnership Analysis - The Disney-OpenAI deal involves Disney investing in OpenAI, but the investment is small compared to OpenAI's infrastructure spending [1] - OpenAI is licensing Disney characters without cash payments, only stock warrants, suggesting a potentially insubstantial agreement [2] Intellectual Property and AI - The US lawsuits against generative AI companies focus on training models, while the Minimax case in China concerns output mirroring and competing with creative content [5][6] - Courts are likely to be more critical of AI output that mirrors and competes with existing creative content [6] - The US president has suggested that IP protection may need to take a backseat to national security concerns in the race with China over AI [7] - Intellectual property needs to adapt to technological advancements like AI, focusing on how to work with, use, manage, and take advantage of it [8] Legal and International Implications - Warner Brothers is dealing with simultaneous deals from Netflix and Paramount, and is also suing companies alongside Disney and Universal, highlighting the legal ramifications of IP [4] - The US and China are engaged in a "Cold War" over AI, which will have economic and defense implications, making China's moves in IP protection significant [6]