Coinbase has the upperhand over Circle, says Mizuho's Dan Dolev

Investment Recommendation - Mazuo maintains an underperform rating with a price target of $85 [1] - The analyst prefers Coinbase over Circle [5] - Recommends sticking with quality crypto investments like Robinhood [8] Stablecoin Market Analysis - USDC circulation growth has been stagnant at around 6% since the end of Q2, not reflecting the assumed 40% long-term CAGR [2] - Current USDC usage is primarily for settling crypto/Bitcoin transactions on Coinbase [4] - B2B corporate and cross-border payments are the main use cases, with limited impact on US consumers due to already cheap and ubiquitous payment solutions [5] Coinbase Advantage - Coinbase benefits from the Genius Act, allowing them to offer rewards that Circle cannot, effectively creating an unregulated money market account [6] - Coinbase earns revenue from 100% of coins on its platform and 50% of coins not on its platform [6] IPO Market Sentiment - The crypto IPO market, including bullish (CoinDesk owner) and Miami International, signals continued investor appetite for crypto products [8] - Small float and retail excitement around Circle's IPO could lead to overvaluation and potential losses after the lockup period expires in December [7][8]