Tech Investors Pay More Attention to Cyclical Industry

AI and Digital Infrastructure - The "Stargate" project, potentially valued at $500 billion, is considered a real development, involving numerous tech companies, though its full realization remains to be seen [1] - The US government views investment in digital infrastructure positively, aiming to maintain a leading position in this area, similar to having a strategic petroleum reserve, especially given the proliferation of AI [3] - The productivity improvements from AI are still in the early phases of discovery, with potential challenges for the entry-level workforce and the need for training and experience to validate AI outputs [5] - Digital infrastructure is attracting investor interest beyond chips and servers, extending to real estate and industrials providing power and cooling for data centers, all related to the AI theme [13] Geopolitics and Trade - The tariff strategy is reportedly compelling foreign-owned companies like TSMC and Foxconn to establish production in the US [6] - Nvidia views China as a significant total addressable market of $15 billion to $50 billion, emphasizing the importance of American technology maintaining a presence there [7] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by inflation and unemployment figures [9] - The current Fed target rate of 45% feels restrictive, with a belief that a rate closer to 3% to 35% would be more appropriate in normal times [10][11] - Lower interest rates could aid cyclical companies in refinancing, benefiting industrials and real estate investment trusts [12]