Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Over?

Market Trends & Volatility - Bitcoin's volatility is decreasing due to institutional involvement, suggesting a maturing market [2][4] - Historically, Bitcoin bull markets experienced 30% drawdowns, but recent drawdowns have been around 10-15%, indicating muted volatility [1][2] - The expectation of Bitcoin reaching $400,000-$500,000 in this cycle is unlikely, and 85-90% drawdowns in bear markets are also improbable [2][3] - Bitcoin has transitioned from a contrarian trade to a consensus trade, requiring lower volatility to attract institutions [4] Holder Base & Capital Flow - The Bitcoin holder base is shifting from primarily retail investors to institutions and public companies, impacting selling behavior [5][6] - Capital is fracturing as investors optimize for different aspects like yield, infrastructure, and the underlying asset (Bitcoin) [14][15] - Some individuals with large Bitcoin holdings are converting to ETFs for security reasons, although the community generally emphasizes self-custody [16] Future Outlook & Potential Catalysts - While Bitcoin is expected to reach $1 million at some point, it's unlikely in the current cycle [7] - Bitcoin is considered oversold at $112,000-$113,000, with potential for recovery in September/October [9] - Potential catalysts for Bitcoin's resurgence include increased market activity in September, speculation on a Fed interest rate cut, and buying from Bitcoin treasury companies [10][11] - Some investors are moving from Bitcoin to Ethereum or stablecoin businesses like Circle [12]