Market Trends & Economic Outlook - CPI数据低于预期，但美联储更关注劳动力市场，通胀可能在明年超过3%，但总体风险在劳动力方面[1] - 汽油价格处于四年低位，工资下降，通胀互换处于年度低点，市场预期美联储明年可能不会降息[1] - AI是潜在的通货紧缩力量，可能限制工资增长，并对劳动力市场产生长期影响[1][2] - 市场出现轮动，资金从成长股转向价值股，从小盘股转向大盘股，这种轮动可能预示着PMI指数上升[2] - 预计被市场遗忘的股票将跑赢拥挤的领头羊，AI基础设施股赚钱难度加大，视觉语言模型（VLM）将成为关注点[2] - 数据中心建设、AI发展和同步升级周期将推动PMI指数上升，但如果大型科技公司表现不佳，可能导致市场出现20%的回调风险[2] Investment Opportunities & Risks - 看好Tesla，认为它将是Mag 7中表现最好的股票，同时Nvidia和Apple也将表现出色，不看好超大规模企业和基于代码构建的公司[2] - Oracle面临风险，因其资产负债表使用方式和收入不足以抵消风险，但相信其收入将在明年加速增长[3] - 传统金融公司Cisco将受益于AI驱动的流量和网络安全需求增长，稳定币交易量增加也将利好Bitcoin[46][47][64] - 银行是AI交易的受益者，因为它们有能力利用AI取代知识型员工，制药公司也在向AI药物发现转型[49][51] - 比特币需要连续三天收于92,000美元上方才能改变下行趋势，AI吸走了本应流入加密货币的资金，但这种情况将在今年开始改变[57][63] AI & Technological Disruption - AI代理正在攻击知识型员工，个人需要成为AI原生，利用AI代理，而不是被AI代理取代[5][6] - 法律公司采用AI的动机可能是为了显得具有AI能力，但实际使用率可能不高，因为效率提高可能会减少按小时计费的收入[4] - 投资者在公开市场中缺乏参与AI趋势的途径，与私人市场相比，公开市场中可投资的AI公司数量不足[39][41] - AI的真正价值在于视觉语言模型（VLM），而不是传统的人工智能，Tesla是一家AI公司，因为它需要计算机视觉来实现机器人出租车和人形机器人[49][46]

What's going on guys? Today we got a great conversation with John Pompiano. We're going to talk about what's going on in the Bitcoin market. Why is price not going up? I've got a very interesting idea that I think you will like about how to see the Bitcoin market moving forward. We talk about the Fed cutting interest rates, what's going on in the economy, and of course, how could we possibly talk about Bitcoin and Bitcoin volatility without talking about buds training and ringing the bell. You're going to l ...

Fed Policy & Market Impact - The Fed's 25 basis point rate cut was largely expected, but the dovish messaging, highlighting concerns about labor market weakness and potential overstatement of non-farm payroll numbers by approximately 60,000 jobs, surprised the market [1] - The Fed acknowledged the need to start treasury bill purchases at $40 billion per month, signaling continued liquidity support, which is seen as positive for assets like gold and Bitcoin [1] - Equities reacted positively, with small caps and transports rising, indicating a shift towards cyclical, pro-inflation trades, while growth stocks underperformed value stocks [2] Bitcoin & Crypto - Bitcoin's chart looks weak, but there are buy signals, with expectations of a surge back to $100,000 if it can get above $93,000, and Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin [2] - The long-term view is that Bitcoin will benefit from the AI-driven hyper-productivity growth, as AI models compete with each other, diminishing moats and emphasizing adaptability, making Bitcoin a compelling large-cap growth investment [6][26] AI & Technology - The progress in AI models, particularly from GPT-4 to GPT-5, is based on advancements in reasoning and reinforcement learning, rather than solely on hardware, but the Blackwell deployment is crucial for visual language models and physical world applications like robotics and robo-taxis [3] - The consensus in San Francisco is that recursive self-improvement in AI will be reached in the next 2-4 years, leading to hyper-productivity and computers solving problems in energy and biology [5] - Open-source AI models are gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper solutions, but Blackwell chips provide a significant performance jump, potentially favoring closed-source models in the long run [5][6] Economic Transition & Investment Strategies - The US economy is transitioning from analog/electronic to digital, causing disruption and "shedding skin," with small business bankruptcies at a record high, but also creating opportunities for individuals to create income streams online [8] - The focus is shifting from software to hardware, with opportunities in energy, transportation, and small-cap companies making LiDAR and sensors, as the physical world is still essential to fuel technology [9] - The IPO market is expected to be historically active in the next 12-18 months, with companies like Anthropic, XAI, OpenAI, and SpaceX going public, requiring capital to build out physical infrastructure [8] Risks & Opportunities in 2026 - While a major recession is considered low probability, 20-30% market corrections are expected in the next 5 years due to events impacting profit margins and productivity [9] - A potential risk is the capex hole, where hyperscalers are spending heavily on infrastructure but not yet seeing corresponding revenue increases, potentially impacting valuations [9] - Embodied AI, starting with robo-taxis, is a major theme for the coming year, creating opportunities in hardware, batteries, and commodities like copper [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17]

There's a lot of big institutions that might even be behind some of this sell-off that want to drive it lower because they want to get in. I think there's huge institutional big money demand to buy Bitcoin. It's just waiting to pounce. And so once that pounce happens, we're going to be at 150. I still think, and the last time I was on, I said I think we'll be at 150 by the end of February. I hate to do it, but facts change, I got to change. I'm going to back it up just a little bit and say I think we'll be ...

on exchanges. I can imagine that the average sort of customer segment is very much younger day trading. Ours is much more of an investment long-term mindset and is very much reflected with the the average age of our of our customers being perhaps a little bit older than people would expect. The second thing that might be a little bit surprising is What's going on guys? We got a great conversation today with Sheamus Rocka. He is the CEO of Zapo Bank. They are one of the most important critical pieces of infr ...

What's going on guys? Today I got a great conversation with Darius Dale for you. In this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates in December? Who is going to be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? And how is the Fed actually impacting different asset prices? What is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up, down, sideways, backwards? Prices are going everywhere. People are completely confused as to how the Fed is going to act. And the market i ...

Inflation and Monetary Policy - The current affordability crisis in America is largely driven by inflation, resulting from a constantly expanding money supply in a debt-based economy, which erodes purchasing power [1] - Regardless of the political party in power, the quality of life for the average person continues to deteriorate due to increasing debt and the necessity to print more money [1] - The US government's continued money printing and weaponization of the dollar are prompting other countries to seek alternatives like gold, with Bitcoin potentially becoming a future alternative [15][16] - The traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not accurately reflect the true cost of living increases, as essential expenses like healthcare, housing, and groceries have risen significantly more than the reported 2% average annual inflation rate; monetary inflation, averaging around 7-8% annually, provides a more accurate picture [21] Bitcoin as a Solution - Bitcoin is presented as an accessible asset that can protect individuals from currency debasement and inflation, offering an asymmetric opportunity for ordinary families to front-run Wall Street [1][5] - Bitcoin empowers both store of value and medium of exchange functionalities, with the base layer serving as digital gold and secondary layers like the Lightning Network enabling faster payments [17] - Bitcoin's open, permissionless network allows anyone to use it, making institutional adoption inevitable and providing opportunities for average individuals [4] - Bitcoin is a politically neutral technology that empowers individuals to be their own bank and save in a system resistant to manipulation [19] Adoption and Market Dynamics - While gold has outperformed Bitcoin in the short term, Bitcoin is expected to outperform in the long run, having already outperformed most other assets over the past 5-10 years [1] - Nation states are increasingly buying gold as a debasement trade and to move away from the US dollar, but Bitcoin adoption by central banks is expected to be a slow process [9][11] - Stablecoins serve as a great on-ramp to crypto, but Bitcoin is the preferred asset for saving due to the depreciating nature of fiat currencies [17] - The increasing instances of debanking in the US highlight the benefits of Bitcoin as a tool for financial freedom, allowing individuals to transact without permission from intermediaries [18]

Welcome back to Squawkbox right here on CNBC. Bitcoin down more than 22% in a month. Joining us right now is Anthony Poniano.He's the founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management. Pomp, we need to understand sort of where where you stand on all this. Also, I should say there's been a a bigger even uh fall in some of the other cryptocurrencies, but you've been a Bitcoin man.So, um where do you see the floor at this point and where do you see the upside. >> Yeah. Well, let's put this all in context real ...

And I think for Bitcoin and for people that are focused on altcoins, yes, from a trading perspective, it's been bad. I've lost money. This has not been fun. I wake up every day and I go, "Okay, here we're in for another battle. " But I've been through enough of these battles to realize that when it feels this bad and there literally is no hope and I'm getting signs of really intelligent people calling me scared to death, I just What's going on, guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. Pric ...

We know there's a lot of bad news. We know sentiment is, you know, kind of in the toilet and people are very uh worried. Is there anything you point to that's like, hey, this is actually giving me some hope. One area of hope is that it shows Bitcoin has shown still a little more resiliency and in intraday price move I can tell away from other risk assets. The question is like what's a black swan event for Bitcoin upside? A black swan event for Bitcoin upside. What's going on guys? Today we got a great episo ...