Investors watch Nvidia results to see if Tech rally can continue

Market Sentiment & Valuation - Market experienced a strong rally following JP Pal's comments, leading to enthusiasm about potential rate cuts [1] - Current market valuations are considered extended, trading at almost 25 times earnings compared to a comfortable 22 times, suggesting potential profit-taking [2] - Momentum trade underperformed, while broadening trade led by S&P equal weight outperformed market cap weighted index, indicating sector rotation [3] - Valuations are stretched across the board, but tech continues to see earnings results performing on par or better than expectations [4][5] Tech Sector & Nvidia - Tech sector's earnings beats are diminishing in magnitude compared to previous periods, despite estimate upticks and valuation expansions of 20-25% [5] - Security selection within tech is becoming increasingly important due to run-ups and uncertainty regarding earnings upside [6] - Nvidia's earnings report is a significant inflection point for the market, with options markets implying a 6% move in either direction [7][11] - Nvidia needs a strong Q3 fiscal 2026 guide to maintain momentum, as it trades at over 40 times earnings and 20 times sales [14] - Nvidia's performance significantly impacts the overall market due to its substantial weight in major indices [15] Investment Opportunities & Strategies - Midcap 400 is considered a potentially attractive area for investment [7] - Financials and industrials within the down cap segment are selectively appealing [8] - Themes like fintech and wearable technology, offering exposure to financials and healthcare (excluding insurance and biotech), are attractive due to earnings estimates holding steady [9][10] - Maintaining holdings in AI names is recommended [9] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - Broader economic data, including jobs reports and Q3 earnings reports (excluding growth), are more critical to the market than the PCE number [16] - Comfort exists regarding an upcoming Fed rate cut, but both the economy and inflation need to cooperate for the broadening trade to succeed [16] - Commentary on China and gross margin will be important factors for Nvidia's earnings [12][13]