Palantir Fundamentals On a Different Planet: Thill

Valuation Concerns - The company's valuation is approximately 70 times revenue, a multiple rarely seen and unsustainable for software companies [1] - While the company's fundamentals are exceptional, the valuation remains a concern, reminiscent of past instances where high multiples for companies like Snowflake proved unsustainable [3][4] - A significant portion (around 40%) of the investor base is retail investors, which can sustain the stock price for a while, but institutional investors have valuation thresholds they cannot exceed [5] Growth and Sustainability - The company's performance is outstanding, with top-line and bottom-line margin combined equaling 90, which is unheard of [2][3] - Deceleration in revenue growth could trigger a multiple contraction, especially given the current high valuation [4] - The CEO's statement about growing revenue ten X with a shrinking employee workforce raises questions about the sustainability of such growth, considering the need for talented personnel to implement the software [7] Market Dynamics and Risks - The market's irrationality, driven by a retail investor base, could persist, making it difficult to predict when the stock's high valuation will correct [9] - The company's unique business model and exceptional execution have defied fundamental reasons to sell the stock, despite the stretched multiple [10][11] - Upside risks include potential monetization of IP and sustained commercial momentum, which could justify the valuation [8]