Eli Lilly's weight loss pill will likely be the market-leading product, says BofA's Tim Anderson

Drug Overview & Clinical Trial Data - Eli Lilly's oral obesity pill (oral orforglipron) shows patients with obesity and diabetes losing approximately 105% of their body weight [1] - The Attain 2 trial results, focusing on patients with both obesity and diabetes, align with expectations [5] - Three phase three results reported: Achieve 1 (pure diabetics, positive), Attain 1 (pure obese, fell short), and Attain 2 (obese and diabetics, in line) [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Nova Nordisk is a main competitor with an oral version of their GLP-1 called oral semaglutide [6] - Eli Lilly's oral drug has an advantage over Nova Nordisk's due to the absence of food restrictions [7] - Injectable products (Mounjaro and Zepbound) are likely to remain the workhorse products due to better efficacy and established brand [7][9] Market Dynamics & Future Trends - Patient preference will dictate market share, with some preferring the convenience of a pill [9][10] - A plausible scenario involves initial weight loss with injectables followed by maintenance with orals [11] - Geographic variation exists, with oral medications potentially more popular outside the US due to needle phobia [8][9]