Nvidia's stock can double from here, if not more, says Melius' Ben Reitzes

Nvidia's Financial Performance & Growth Outlook - Nvidia's core growth outside of China is robust, showing mid-teens percentage growth [3] - The total addressable market (TAM) could reach over $600 billion by the end of the decade, potentially doubling the stock price [4] - Ben Reitzes raised the price target to $240, suggesting a buying opportunity on weakness [22] China Market & Geopolitical Factors - The report acknowledges concerns about China sales not being included in Nvidia's guidance [2] - There's optimism that tensions between the US and China will ease, potentially leading to a trade deal and increased sales [14][15][16] - The Trump administration is reportedly working with Jensen Huang (Nvidia's CEO) commercially to ensure the US dominates the AI world [15][16] - The report discusses the possibility of China developing its own AI stack and the implications for global AI leadership [15][18][21] Customer Concentration & Competition - 44% of data center chip sales are attributed to a few major customers, likely Google and Microsoft [6] - There's concern that customer concentration could limit TAM growth if only a few companies dominate AI chip purchases [6] - Healthy competition exists among the top four companies, along with emerging players like OpenAI [8] - Sovereign AI initiatives in the Middle East and Europe could drive further demand for AI infrastructure [9] Nvidia's Competitive Advantage - Nvidia possesses a strong developer ecosystem, which is crucial for monetizing AI applications [19][20] - Nvidia's AI stack is considered safer and more advantageous for global AI development compared to potential alternatives [21]