China's probe on Nvidia seems to have minimal financial impact, says Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon

US-China Trade Relations & Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia's ability to sell into China is currently restricted due to issues on the US side, creating a difficult situation for the company [2] - The situation with Nvidia and China is viewed as a chess piece in broader trade talks between the US and China [3] - China may be using Nvidia as leverage in trade negotiations, flexing its power [5][8] - China launched an anti-dumping investigation into the analog space, indicating efforts to exert influence [6] - China's limited leadership position in semiconductors restricts its ability to exert pressure in this area [6] Nvidia's Business & Future Prospects - Nvidia wants to sell into China, and there is significant demand for its products in the Chinese market [4] - Anything Nvidia gets from China in the near to medium term represents upside potential, as they have currently zeroed out any revenue from China in their forecasts [13][14] - The market is closely watching the ramp of Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra and GB300 parts into the end of the year and next year [13] - Nvidia's GTC event in March of next year will provide more information on their next-generation product, Reuben, expected to ramp in the second half of next year [14] National Security Concerns - Concerns exist regarding national security implications related to Chinese technology, drawing parallels with the TikTok situation [9][11] - The US deeply considers the national security relationship with China [11]