AI Spending Powered by Demand: JPMorgan’s Aliaga

Infrastructure Investment & Demand - Concerns exist regarding the scale of infrastructure investment and potential capital loss [1] - Explosive demand growth is evident, requiring careful valuation checks [2] - Infrastructure wave is supported by real demand growth and cash flows, particularly from major hyperscalers [2][3] - Supply constraints persist despite significant spending [3] - The infrastructure theme is long-term, with potential upsets along the way [3] Debt & Funding - Debt is involved in many infrastructure deals, extending beyond the four major hyperscalers [4][5] - Bond investors are betting on future revenue generation to repay bonds [6] - The infrastructure wave is impacting the corporate bond market, utilities, and both public and private sectors [7] - A 40-year bond yielded approximately 1.65 percentage points over Treasuries [7] Capital Spending & Energy - Markets have been rewarding large capital spending commitments [9] - Current spending is grounded in real infrastructure, chip spending, and data centers, unlike the dot-com bubble [10] - The global energy sector's ability to meet demand is a trillion-dollar question [11] - Data center power commitments are substantial, equivalent to powering New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles for a year [11] - The aged infrastructure grid requires upgrades, with potential solutions like nuclear and natural gas power expected in the 2030s [12] - Efficiency gains and gradual demand increases may prevent a bottleneck in the near term [12][13] - Compute costs have already decreased by 98% [13]