How retail traders are investing around AI giants, Adobe forecasts $253B in online holiday sales

Market Trends & Investment Activity - Retail trading activity hit a six-month high in September, with investors adding exposure to names like Nvidia, Oracle, and crypto-adjacent stocks [4] - Investors are adding risk by switching to more volatile, higher beta names, despite nearly 40% feeling bearish [5][6] - There's a belief that the AI trade is potentially overextended, with high valuations across the technology sector [7] - Money is moving into small AI and crypto-adjacent stocks, indicating increased risk-taking [12] - There's a divergence in the options world, with increased call buying on individual equities but less hedging from institutions on index skew [12][13] Company Performance & Strategies - AMD's stock experienced a 30% increase due to a multi-year deal with OpenAI [2][10][11] - Oracle was the number three stock bought by Schwab clients in September [4][11] - Investors trimmed positions in Tesla and Apple after they broke out of a range, potentially booking profits [14][15][16] - Amazon and Nvidia saw net buys on weeks with pullbacks, indicating a "buy the dip, sell the rip" mentality [17] Economic Factors & Predictions - A continuing steepening of the yield curve could benefit financials [18] - The 10-year bond yield has shown stability around 4.15%, potentially keeping equity volatility contained and supporting the rally [19] - The dollar strengthened by 2% against the Japanese yen due to a surprise election in Japan, flagging potential concerns in global bond markets [27][28][29] Retail & Holiday Season Forecasts - Adobe forecasts $253 billion in online holiday sales, up about 5% year-over-year [31][32] - E-commerce growth is maturing, with forecasters suggesting single-digit percentage growth for the holidays [32][33] - Mass merchants like Amazon and Walmart, along with smaller niche players, are expected to see decent holiday sales [40] - Prime Day pulls forward holiday demand into October but isn't necessarily additive to overall holiday sales growth [41][43] - Adobe predicts an 11% increase in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) spending [44]