William Blair's Dorsheimer: Tesla's stock is more aligned with robotaxis & FSD than new models

Tesla's Automotive Business - Cheaper Model Y and Model 3 versions are intended to offset the expiration of the federal EV tax credit, potentially recovering about 66.67% to 75% of the lost tax credit value [2] - The core auto business faces headwinds, with the valuation increasingly aligned with robo-taxi initiatives [3] - Tesla shifted away from developing a hyper-competitive hatchback (Model 2) towards prioritizing robo-taxi development, indicating a focus on capital efficiency [4] - New, cheaper models are expected to dilute margins in the automotive sector [6] - A 19% drop in unit deliveries is expected next quarter due to the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit, which is unlikely to be fully offset by the $5,000 price reduction [7][8] Energy Business Performance - The energy business achieved record performance, delivering 12 gigawatt hours [10][11] - While the energy business accounts for only 15% of revenue, it contributes 25% of the company's profitability [11] - The energy business is expected to help fill the gap created by the automotive sector's challenges [11] Market and Regulatory Factors - The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in North America led to a pull-forward effect, boosting deliveries in the previous quarter [7] - The regulatory tax credit, distinct from the EV tax credit, is also disappearing, further impacting margins [8]