Apple(US:AAPL) CNBC Televisionยท2025-10-22 11:40Investment Rating & Price Target - The analyst has a hold rating on Apple stock due to geopolitical risks related to China and lagging performance in artificial intelligence [1] - The price target is $50 below the street average, reflecting less upside potential based on both earnings and multiple considerations [2] - The price target is based on a 28 times multiple, resulting in a $21 valuation, significantly below the current trading price [4] - The analyst awaits the September quarter report to reassess the price target based on material upside [10] Earnings & Revenue - Apple guided to September quarterly revenue growth of mid to high single digits, anticipating strong performance from the iPhone 17 lineup [3] - The key question is whether the iPhone 17 lineup has exceeded expectations enough to drive earnings estimates higher [3] Artificial Intelligence (AI) - The market is concerned about Apple's ability to capitalize on artificial intelligence, which is considered a crucial factor in stock market performance [1] - An AI surprise, such as an acquisition or development in Apple Intelligence, is not currently priced into the stock and could provide a significant boost [4] - Apple historically avoids large acquisitions, preferring to acquire talent rather than spending billions on companies to advance its AI efforts [5] Geopolitical & Market Competition - Geopolitical tensions between the US and China, including tariffs and access to rare earth minerals, pose risks to Apple [9] - Apple faces increasing competition from Chinese smartphone manufacturers within China, where it generates approximately 10% of its revenue [9] Potential Growth Catalysts - A foldable iPad or iPhone could create another growth leg for the company [6][7] - A thinner device, potentially leading to a foldable iPhone, could be a catalyst for iPhone sales if foldable smartphones become more important than AI-enabled ones [7]