Bitcoin’s Next 50% Move: Why the Bottom Is In

Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin is potentially setting up for a 50% move by the end of February, potentially reaching just under $150,000 from a base of $98,000 [1][8] - The speaker believes Bitcoin can still hit $140,000 by the end of the year [1][9] - Bitcoin is seen as building a base in the $100,000-$110,000 range for a larger move up over the next few months [2] - A massive technical breakdown in the uptrend, confirmed by a dramatic drop below the $98,000 level and failure to re-enter the channel for a week, would be a bearish signal [12] - Lack of bipartisan regulatory progress on digital assets would also be concerning [13] - The speaker notes that Bitcoin has shown potential for powerful moves, citing a 15% move from $109,000 to $126,000 in six trading days in September/October and a 25% move from $98,000 to $123,236 in three weeks in June/July [7][8] Market Uncertainty and Influences - Uncertainty factors include the Supreme Court decision on tariffs, government shutdowns, and the Federal Reserve's actions in December [1] - The market has been resilient despite uncertainty, with institutional buyers seeing the dollar stabilize [1] - The speaker suggests that clarity on these issues is important, but structural issues like the AI story failing or a shift towards a socialist-leaning Democratic presidential candidate in 2027 could threaten the longer-term bull market [2] - The speaker believes that the market structure has changed due to institutional participation and the introduction of ETFs, leading to shallower drawdowns and a more gradual price increase [31][32] Broader Economic and Geopolitical Considerations - The speaker mentions the potential for US military action in Venezuela and its impact on financial markets, noting that the initial market reaction could be negative [1][57] - The speaker also discusses the concept of "White House asset management," where the government takes positions in companies deemed important for national security [42][43]