Investment Thesis on ExxonMobil - ExxonMobil has been consolidating since 2022 and is now approaching the upper end of its range, with $125 per share as a potential breakout trigger [2] - Investors can anticipate a breakout due to the dividend yield and low expectations surrounding the stock [3] - Fundamentals for Exxon are expected to improve in 2026, aligning with positive technical indicators [3] - The company returns a significant amount of capital to shareholders and has become very efficient with current oil prices [4] - Potential upside surprises are expected going into 2026 if commodity prices offer support, given the company's low costs [5] Industry Dynamics and Catalysts - Refining margins are improving significantly, and diesel margins are back to 2024 highs, benefiting companies like ExxonMobil and Marathon Petroleum [6] - ExxonMobil has a growth catalyst in the Golden Pass LNG business, a partnership focused on export LNG [7] - The energy sector is starting to outperform, potentially leading to a reassessment of blue-chip names like ExxonMobil [8] - Data center build will benefit the energy sector, suggesting a longer-term positive outlook beyond 2026 [9] - The energy sector is crucial for the next decade, requiring all forms of energy production [10] Portfolio Strategy - One portfolio has a 21% exposure to energy, driven by high dividends and strategic considerations related to data center growth [9] - There is a potential to increase investment in ExxonMobil towards the end of the year [7] - Another portfolio has approximately 7% exposure to energy [11]
Josh Brown's 'best stocks in the market': Exxon Mobil