How Low Could Bitcoin Go From Here? Mark Yusko Breaks It Down

Market Analysis & Fair Value - The speaker believes the crypto market is currently in a "crypto winter," but expects it to be mild [1][4] - Bitcoin's fair value is estimated to be around $91,000 - $92,000 based on a network-based calculation model [1] - Historical patterns show Bitcoin's price exceeding fair value in bull markets before significant corrections [1] - Corrections occur due to leveraged gamblers being liquidated and traders selling as prices fall towards fair value [1] Market Cycle & Influences - There are differing views on whether the four-year Bitcoin cycle is still valid, with some suggesting a prolonged cycle into 2026 [1] - The four-year cycle may be influenced by the "halving," which reduces block rewards and incentivizes miners to hold until prices rise [1] - Increased institutional adoption via ETFs introduces new money, but is counteracted by early adopters ("OGs") selling [1][2] - The speaker argues that the four-year cycle is tied to the having, while others believe it is a liquidity cycle [3] Bitcoin vs Gold & Future Outlook - Bitcoin's volatility is expected to decrease, potentially mirroring gold's more stable chart due to reduced leverage and market maturity [4] - Gold's market is 10 times bigger than Bitcoin's market [4] - Bitcoin is classified as a commodity, making it susceptible to manipulation in the futures market [4] - The speaker suggests accumulating Bitcoin gradually over time as a savings asset to protect against currency devaluation [6][7] Web3 & Incumbent Resistance - Web3 is currently in the "they fight you" phase (2022-2027), where incumbents resist the technology [10] - Incumbents, particularly the financial services industry, are fighting to maintain their $7 trillion annual revenue [12][14] - The speaker believes that blockchain technology and Bitcoin will inevitably win, but the fight from incumbents may intensify [14][15][17]