Fed Narrative Shifted More Than Nvidia's: 3-Minutes MLIV

NVIDIA and Big Tech - NVIDIA earnings were expected to be strong due to being a major beneficiary of the current massive CapEx bubble [1][2] - The temporary pullback in stocks is not the bursting of the bubble; the air bubble is expected to inflate significantly further into 2026 [2] - Short-term pressure on retail favorites and momentum stocks, potentially driven by the crypto sector, may not be fully exhausted [3] - NVIDIA earnings may not have fundamentally changed the short-term pressure on frothier stocks [3] Macroeconomic Factors and Fed Policy - There is increasing suspicion that a December Fed rate cut may not occur [5] - The potential lack of a Fed rate cut in December could weigh on asset prices in the short term [5][8] - A Fed policy that is too easy for the economic fundamentals helps asset prices, but the bubble is its own dominant theme [9] - The US economy is not currently seen as careening off a cliff edge, suggesting a preemptive rate cut is not necessary [7] Investment Strategy - It is not completely convinced that now is the time to buy the dip [4] - The bubble is in the inflation stage of incredible CapEx spending, which benefits some of the big names [10]