X @郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

Industry Outlook - Intel is projected to begin shipping Apple's lowest-end M processors as early as 2Q-3Q27, utilizing the 18AP advanced process [1] - The actual timeline depends on the development progress after obtaining PDK 1.0/1.1, expected to be released by Intel in 1Q26 [1] - The lowest-end M chips are primarily used in MacBook Air and iPad Pro, with a combined shipment volume of approximately 20 million units in 2025 [1] - Due to potential impact from new low-cost MacBooks with iPhone processors, the projected shipment volume for the lowest-end M processors in 2026 and 2027 is estimated to be between 15 million and 20 million units [1] Strategic Implications - The order for the lowest-end M processors has no impact on TSMC's fundamentals and leading advantage in the coming years [2] - For Apple, this move supports the "Made in America" policy and diversifies its supply chain, reducing reliance on TSMC [2] - For Intel, securing Apple's advanced process order is more significant than the actual revenue and profit contribution, signaling a positive turn for its IFS business [2] - This order suggests that Intel's 14A or more advanced processes may attract more orders from Apple and other major clients, improving its long-term prospects [2]