Smuggling AI servers into China didn’t change the downward trend in Super Micro’s gross marginExcerpt:"...servers sold for $510 million between late April 2025 and mid-May 2025..."Full article:https://t.co/jFjc4ZzU7zAt least ~10% of Super Micro’s 2Q CY2025 revenue was tied to servers reportedly smuggled into China. In theory, these should carry much higher margins, but gross margin still declined sharply to 9.6% (vs. 11.3% in 2Q CY2024).Two possibilities:1. Margins in the legitimate business are simply too ...

走私AI伺服器到中國，無法改變美超微的毛利率衰退趨勢節錄自新聞報導："...servers sold for $510 million between late April 2025 and mid-May 2025..."報導原文：https://t.co/jFjc4Zzmi1美超微在2Q CY2025的營收至少約1/10的營收來自走私。理論上走私的毛利率應該很高，但2Q CY2025的毛利率卻顯著衰退至9.6% (vs. 2Q CY2024的11.3%)。兩種可能：1. 合法銷售業務的毛利率太差，這回應了我之前關於AI伺服器組裝毛利率承壓的分析 (https://t.co/7BFSvcJete)。而美超微較小規模、較差執行力等結構性劣勢，進一步放大毛利率壓力。2. 當時可能不只美超微走私，有其他選擇下有助買家提高議價力，故美超微的非法銷售毛利率沒想像中高。 ...

Nvidia LPU/LPX racks set for order-of-magnitude growth: application trends, ecosystem integration, and a new PCB cycle1. My latest supply-chain checks suggest that following Nvidia’s investment in Groq, LPU shipment forecasts have moved significantly higher. Total shipments in 2026–2027 are estimated at 4–5 million units (with 30–40% in 2026 and 60–70% in 2027). Relative to historical annual volumes, this implies order-of-magnitude growth, roughly 10×+.2. Fast-growing LPU demand reflects two key factors:(1) ...

Nvidia LPU/LPX機櫃將迎來數量級成長：應用趨勢、生態整合與PCB新成長週期1. 我的最新產業調查顯示，Nvidia投資Groq後，LPU出貨規劃大幅上修。2026-2027年LPU共出貨預估約400–500萬顆（2026約30–40%、2027約60–70%），相較過去年度出貨量，將出現10倍以上的數量級成長。2. LPU需求快速成長主要來自兩項因素：(1) 與Nvidia生態系 (如CUDA) 高度整合，大幅降低應用開發與部署門檻。(2) 超低延遲推論需求快速增加，包括AI agents（如coding agents）以及正在興起的real-time、consumer-facing與physical-AI等類型應用。3. 為維持推論decode階段的超低延遲優勢，並因應長文本推理帶動的KV cache需求快速成長，Nvidia預計將每機櫃LPU數量由目前64顆提升至256顆，以擴大記憶體容量並維持超低延遲效能。新架構機櫃預計於4Q26–1Q27量產，2026與2027年機櫃出貨量分別約300–500與15,000–20,000個。4. Nvidia生態整合LPU的三個關鍵觀察重點：(1) 網路架 ...

Supply chain check update: Nvidia and WUS Printed Circuit have begun testing next-gen CCL material M10, which could trigger the next upgrade cycle in PCB materials for future AI servers. Key points:1. The program suggests WUS has an early lead in PCB development for Nvidia’s next-gen rack Kyber and the new Rubin Ultra / Feynman platforms. This could support the company’s future growth momentum.2. Sampling began in 1Q26, with preliminary test results expected in 2Q26.3. M10's target applications include orth ...

供應鏈調查更新：Nvidia與滬電股份已開始測試次世代CCL材料M10，將帶動未來AI伺服器的PCB材料新一輪升級週期。幾個重點：1. 此測試計畫意味著滬電股份在Nvidia次世代機櫃Kyber與新平台 Rubin Ultra / Feynman的PCB之開發上有領先優勢，此優勢有助於該公司未來的營運動能成長。2. 1Q26已開始送樣與打樣，預計2Q26將取得初步測試結果。3. M10的主要應用包括用來取代Cartridge架構的正交背板 (midplane / orthogonal backplane)，以及Rubin Ultra / Feynman平台的Switch blade主板。4. 與M9僅台光電通過認證不同，目前M10測試共三家CCL供應商。除台光電外，另新增一家中國廠與一家台系廠，未來有助於提升Nvidia的CCL供應鏈管理彈性。5. 若測試順利，M10 CCL與PCB預計將於2H27開始量產。6. 從量產性與商業化考量，M10目前使用的石英布 (Quartz Cloth)，未來也可能改為Low Dk-2。7. 滬電股份同時也是Nvidia用於AI推理的超低延遲LPU/LPX機櫃之52層PCB主 ...

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Apple’s Q1 2026 earnings call provided a number of insights. Below are the key takeaways from a memory sector perspective:Earnings call transcript:https://t.co/R2cjXyjBym1. Apple highlighted two major uncertainties in its hardware supply chain: advanced nodes and memory. The former is defined as a "supply constraint," while the latter is viewed as a "cost pressure."2. Apple’s comments aligns with my pre-earnings analysis (see quotation below): memory pricing has increased significantly, with supply guarante ...

Apple上週法說 (Q1 2026) 資訊量豐富，以下從記憶體角度整理重點：法說會議記錄：https://t.co/R2cjXyjBym1. Apple硬體供應鏈的兩大不確定性為先進製程與記憶體；前者屬「供應限制」 （supply constraint），後者為「成本壓力」 （cost pressure）。2. Apple的說法與我在法說前的分析一致 (見下面引用)：記憶體報價顯著上漲，但能得到供應保障。3. AI記憶體投資人可相對忽略Apple的觀點，非AI記憶體投資人則需關注，因長期來看，非AI記憶體市場達到供需平衡的效率應該高於AI記憶體市場。4. 若Apple在上週法說中定義記憶體是「供應限制」，而非「成本壓力」，應有利於非AI記憶體股，這是部分短線/樂觀投資人想要看到的結果。很巧的是，Apple法說後不同市場的非AI記憶體股價同時出現修正，而在近期非AI記憶體股價修正相關討論中，較少看到從Apple法說/需求面來解讀的觀點。5. 考量到Apple具備絕強的議價力，且iPhone的DRAM與NAND Flash用量均約佔手機記憶體市場的20–25%，故較不適合單憑Apple的觀點解讀非AI／手機記憶 ...