Here are some of Nvidia's hurdles to revenues from H200 chip sales to China

Regulatory and Political Landscape - Despite Trump's approval for H200 chip sales to China, Nvidia's shares experienced a 0.5% decrease [1] - A bipartisan Senate bill proposes denying export licenses for H200s and any Blackwell chips for 30 months, creating potential obstacles [2] - China could block H200 imports to favor domestic alternatives, despite Washington's current approval [4][6] Financial Implications - Margins could be negatively impacted by a 25% government surge, effectively reducing Nvidia's revenue per chip sold in China [3] - Wedbush and Bernstein analysts are hesitant to adjust their models, currently assuming no revenue contribution from China [5] Technological and Supply Chain Challenges - Advanced packaging capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is strained, raising concerns about increased chip production for China [4] - Chinese domestic alternatives lag behind the H200 by approximately 12 to 18 months [4] - The H200 utilizes high bandwidth memory (HBM3E) AI memory chips, which are currently restricted by the United States for sale to China, adding uncertainty [4][5] Competitive Dynamics - Chinese regulators are considering restricting H200 chips to promote domestic alternatives from companies like Huawei and Cambercon, into which Beijing has invested billions of dollars [6]