BofA CEO Moynihan on Economic Outlook, AI and Fed Rate Cuts

Economic Outlook - The research team projects a strong US economy with 24% GDP growth in 2026 [1] - This growth is expected to be strong relative to both US history and other global economies, which are predicted to be flat to down [2] - The American consumer is driving the economy, with consumer spending up approximately 5% in Q3 and 4-45% in October-November [7][8] - Unemployment is normalizing at 45%-46%, which is considered strong relative to historical averages [11][12] AI Investment and Impact - AI investment is expected to be a bigger contributor to growth in the coming years [4] - The company has a total tech spending of approximately $13 billion annually, with around $4 billion allocated to new initiatives like AI [26] - The company is deploying AI to enhance both customer and teammate capabilities, with 200000 people using AI co-pilot by the end of the year [28] - In the near term, AI is primarily focused on process engineering to remove work, but over time, it is expected to enhance revenue generation [38][39] Bank of America Performance and Strategy - The company aims to drive more business by acquiring new clients and expanding relationships with existing ones [19][20] - The company's performance is sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rate policies, with a nominal rate environment of around 3% being favorable [21][24] - The company measures the return on investment for tech projects by assessing additional revenue or expense reduction, ensuring it exceeds the cost of capital [27] Risks and Upsides - The biggest upside risk is the potential for deregulation to further boost US economic growth [51] - Small businesses are concerned about tariffs and immigration policies affecting their ability to secure employees [53][54] - The company manages the risk of overinvestment in AI by carefully assessing the leverage and tenant quality of related projects [47][48]