Don't think Fed should be hiking here, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies

Macroeconomic Environment & Commodity Trends - Oil prices cooled off on the day but remained up 29% for the month, putting pressure on major market averages [1] - Global inventories continued to drain as the unpredictable conflict in the Middle East persisted, creating a supply-induced price spike [4][9] - Financial institutions recommended that clients maintain an overweight position in commodities paired with an overweight equity position to hedge against macro shocks [3][4] Monetary Policy & Economic Risks - Rising oil prices and persistent inflation watch raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider a rate hike ahead of upcoming meetings [5][6] - The housing market, as the most interest rate-sensitive sector, was effectively in a recession with negative revisions, while wage growth decelerated [8] - Industry analysis indicated that hiking rates into a supply-induced energy spike or during the AI capital expenditure buildout would be a policy mistake [9] Equity Market Performance & Sector Analysis - The broader market experienced a stealth correction, with the average S&P stock down more than 18% from its 252-day one-year high [11] - The cap-weighted, Nvidia-dominated semiconductor group declined by about 13%, while broader semiconductor indexes such as SMH and SOX fell significantly further [11][12] - Semiconductor stocks entered the earnings season with the highest implied volatility seen outside of the Global Financial Crisis, presenting a high hurdle for market bears [12][13]