美股、美债、比特币强劲反弹，但怀疑者紧盯"美国经济崩溃迹象"

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a divergence between the optimistic sentiment in financial markets and the underlying economic indicators that suggest a potential slowdown, particularly due to the impacts of the Trump trade policies [1][10][11] - Recent weeks have seen a warming sentiment in U.S. financial markets, with a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 20 basis points, alleviating concerns of large-scale foreign capital withdrawal [2][5] - Risk assets have shown a comprehensive rebound, with bullish leveraged ETFs attracting approximately $7 billion in inflows over the past month, indicating a renewed embrace of risk assets by most investors [5][3] Group 2 - High-frequency data is signaling a slowdown in economic activity, with a significant decline in the number of container ships traveling from China to the U.S., which may lead to higher consumer inflation and substantial layoffs in trucking, logistics, and retail sectors [7][8] - A Bloomberg economist survey indicates that the median probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen from 30% in March to 45%, with consumer confidence hitting a recent low [10] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led investors to adopt a defensive stance, waiting for clearer economic signals, as mixed signals from the administration contribute to market volatility [11][12]