政府债发行提速带来多大缺口？——5月流动性展望【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's "loose monetary" signal is becoming clearer, and the liquidity remains balanced and loose. The issuance of special government bonds has begun, and the issuance of special bonds is accelerating, leading to increased government debt supply pressure in May [2][5] Group 1: Changes in Central Bank Attitude and Liquidity - In April, funding rates decreased, aligning closer to policy rates, with R007 and DR007 average monthly rates down by 19 basis points and 15.4 basis points to 1.77% and 1.72% respectively [6][7] - The central bank shifted from net absorption to net injection in mid-April, releasing supportive signals, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan through MLF in late April [7][10] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 18.9 basis points to 1.62% by the end of April, reflecting a strong bond market amid rising expectations for loose monetary policy [10][19] Group 2: Government Debt Supply Pressure - In May, the issuance of ordinary government bonds is expected to reach 1.12 trillion yuan, with special long-term bonds at 227 billion yuan, totaling approximately 1.34 trillion yuan in government bonds, with a net financing scale of around 763 billion yuan [3][20] - Local government debt issuance is projected at 840 billion yuan in May, with a net financing scale of about 620 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in government debt supply [26] Group 3: Maintaining Loose Liquidity - The liquidity gap in May is estimated to be around 490 billion yuan, indicating increased pressure compared to April, primarily due to the significant rise in government debt net financing [4][36] - The central bank's proactive stance is evident with a slight increase in MLF maturity to 125 billion yuan and a decrease in reverse repo maturity to 900 billion yuan, suggesting a potential for maintaining balanced liquidity [4][36] - Historical trends indicate that May typically sees net fiscal spending, with an expected fiscal deficit of approximately 830 billion yuan, further influencing liquidity dynamics [28]