报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 全球股市普涨 。 股市方面， 本周全球主要股市普涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普500和道琼斯指数均有上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨2%。 债市方面， 10年期 美债收益率继续下降4bp。 商品方面， 原油价格下跌，WTI原油和布伦特原油本周分别下跌1.7%和0.9%。本周伦敦金价上涨1.6%。 汇率方面， 美元指数走低 0.1%。 | 全球股市 | 周涨跌幅 (%) | 月涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月涨跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | 5.0 | -10.0 | 美元指数 | -0.1 | -1.1 | | 道琼斯 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 美国国债收益率:10年 | -4.0 | -22.0 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | 0.0 | -0.9 | | 纳斯达克 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 中国国债收益率:10年 | ব | 4 ...

Core Insights - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with the August CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%, and the core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [4][15] - The increase in energy and food prices has been offset by a decrease in core services and an increase in core goods [4][15] Inflation Trends - The CPI for energy has rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in August, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Gasoline prices have seen a reduced decline of -6.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices have increased by 6.2% [5] Core Goods Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate for core goods has risen to 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in used cars, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6%, and new cars, which increased by 0.7% [7] Core Services Overview - The year-on-year growth rate for core services has remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month growth rate to 0.3% [9] - The owner’s equivalent rent has decreased to a growth rate of 4%, indicating a cooling trend in housing inflation [9] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year have risen to 4.8%, while five-year expectations have increased to 3.5% [12] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut [15]

Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Trump's "transshipment tariffs" and the resumption of postal package taxation will lead to a renewed wave of Chinese enterprises going abroad [2] - The current state of various industries in China going abroad and the differences from direct exports are examined, along with the impact on profit margins [2][3] - East Asian enterprises are driven to go abroad due to rising factor costs and tightening internal and external environments, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains [2][6] Industry Outbound Trends - The outbound journey of East Asian enterprises is primarily driven by rising costs and stricter internal and external environments, prompting a shift from labor-intensive to technology-intensive and service industries [6][10] - Different regions have unique triggers and paths for going abroad, with South Korea focusing on steel and automotive industries, while Taiwan has shifted from chemicals to services [7][12] - The automotive and light industries have led the way in outbound revenue, while electronics and electrical machinery are transitioning from exports to outbound production [3][34] Profit Margin Impact - Overall, there is a positive correlation between Chinese enterprises going abroad and profit margins, with significant industry differences [4][50] - Industries such as light industry, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals see notable profit margin increases after going abroad, while electronics and textiles remain export-dependent [4][63] - The reasons for higher overseas profit margins include supply-demand gaps, brand premiums, and higher consumption levels [65][66] Policy and Market Dynamics - The past decade has seen a shift from "export-oriented" to "global operations" for Chinese enterprises, driven by supportive policies and market conditions [30][32] - The "Belt and Road" initiative has catalyzed outbound revenue growth, particularly in the automotive and light industries [32][33] - The impact of geopolitical risks has led to a cautious approach in the oil and petrochemical sectors, resulting in a decrease in overseas operations [48] Future Outlook - Industries such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, electrical machinery, and electronics are expected to see continued overseas profit growth [81] - The challenges faced by food and beverage, electronics, and textile industries in improving profitability due to localization barriers and international uncertainties are highlighted [81][78]

报 告 正 文 8月我国出口同比增速录得4.4%，较上月增速下降2.8个百分点，环比增速也低于近五年中位数， 主因去年同期基数回升 ，以及关税落地后美进口走弱。从 国别上 来看， 转口贸易代替直接出口 ，对应对美出口转弱，但对东南亚地区转升。此外，对欧出口在去年同期基数大幅提升背景下，逆势回升。从 品类上 来看，电子产 业链，特别是消费电子表现较好。在去年同期基数大幅回落情况下， 进口增速不升反降， 环比增速也创近5年同期新低， 主因 上月生产抢进口告一段落，而国内 需求持续偏弱，从资源国进口大幅回落。 出口后续怎么 看？ 当前贸易顺差仍在扩大，外贸对于经济的支撑仍在。 往后看，9月出口因低基数或有改善， 但考虑到四季度基数大幅抬升，后续 出口中枢稳中 有降 。 一方面 ，美国经济持续走弱，叠加抢进口不再，对应我国出口下行。但 另一方面 ，对欧出口受益于欧洲复苏以及美欧摩擦等机会，叠加美联储降息或大超 预期，以上因素共同支撑四季度出口 。 出口增速由升转降。 根据海关总署统计，按美元计价，2025年8月我国出口同比增速录得4.4%，较7月增速下降2.8个百分点，环比增速也低于近5年中位数， 主因 去年同期基数 ...

美元资产走强。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨跌互现，美股上涨，而欧洲和日本普遍下跌。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500 、道琼斯指数，纳斯达克指数分 别上涨 0.6% 、 0.2% 和 1.2% 。债市方面， 10 年期美债收益率继续下降 6bp ，或因疲软就业数据强化降息预期。商品方面，原油价格下跌， WTI 原油和布伦特原 油本周分别下跌 1% 和 0.6% ，伦敦金价上涨 3% 。汇率方面，美元指数走高 0.5% 。 | | | 2.主要央行货币政策 就业催化降息预期 。 美联储方面 ， 联储理事沃勒再次明确呼吁应在下次会议上降息。在 8 月非农数据发布后，由于就业市场全面降温， 市场认为 9 月降息确 凿，降息 50bp 的概率升至 12% ，年底前降息次数升至 2.8 次。 日本方面， 日本厚生劳动省表示本财年最低时薪将被提高 6.3% ，这一举措将强化"工资 - 物价循 环"，稳固通胀，为日本央行继续加息提供支持。 图：美联储利率路径预期（ % ） 图： 欧央行利率路径预期（ % ） 报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 图：日央行利率路径预期（ % ） 图：美国总流动性： ON RRP+ 银行准 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift in the labor market towards oversupply, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since the end of 2021, while the labor participation rate increased to 62.3% [2][5][14] - The U6 unemployment rate also rose by 0.2 percentage points, indicating increased difficulty for marginal labor to find employment, suggesting a cooling labor market overall [5][14] - Non-farm payroll additions decreased significantly in August, with only 22,000 new jobs created, and downward revisions of 21,000 jobs for June and July combined [2][14] Group 2 - The education and healthcare sector saw the largest decline in new jobs, losing 31,000 positions, while government and financial sectors also experienced notable job losses [4][5] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 7.18 million in July, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, indicating that labor supply exceeds demand, suggesting a potential turning point in the labor market [7][14] - Wage growth is slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 3.7% year-over-year, reflecting a decline in workers' bargaining power [9][10] Group 3 - The market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 12.2%, and expectations for 2.8 rate cuts within the year [14] - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, was 1.2% year-over-year in July, indicating stable wage income growth despite the overall cooling labor market [16]

报 告 正 文 2.主要央行货币政策 特朗普解雇美联储理事。 美联储方面， 理事沃勒 呼吁降低利率，公开支持在 9 月份 降息 25 个基点 ，并预计未来三到六个月内将进一步降息。目前 市场对 9 月 降息 25 个基点的预期已升至 85% 以上 。特朗普 25 日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克（ Lisa Cook ），将降息施压的行动升级。历 史上虽有总统对美联储施压，但罢免美联储理事为首次。 28 日，库克正式向法院提起诉讼，指控其"非法"。 欧洲方面， 欧央行管委公开表示，由于通胀率已处于 2% 的目标水平，且自 6 月预测以来，经济前景未发生显著变化，因此没有必要进一步降息。 美债收益率持续下行。 股市方面，本周全球主要股市涨少跌多。美股三大指数来看，本周标普 500 上涨 0.5% ，道琼斯指数持平，纳斯达克指数下跌 0.2% 。法国 CAC40 指数下跌 3.3% ，或因法国政治不确定性升温。债市方面， 10 年期美债收益率继续下降3 bp ，美联储降息预期持续发酵。商品方面，原油价格反弹， WTI 原油和布伦特原油本周分别上涨 1.5% 和 1.3% 。本周伦敦金价上 ...

Core Viewpoints - The US labor market is cooling down, with the three-month moving average of non-farm employment showing a downward trend, potentially nearing negative growth by October 2023 [2][5][6] - The quality of employment data has been questioned due to significant downward revisions in May and June data, with a total adjustment of 258,000 jobs [9][10] - The unemployment rate is on the rise, reflecting a broader cooling in the labor market, with a decrease in active job seekers and an increase in the duration of unemployment [10][11][30] Employment Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have been the main contributors to job creation, accounting for about half of non-farm employment from January to July 2024, supported by government funding [3][18] - Cyclical industries such as manufacturing and construction are experiencing a slowdown in job growth, with high interest rates limiting business operations and hiring plans [19][23] - The tightening labor market is evident in the information and professional services sectors, where job vacancy rates have increased, likely due to rising demand for AI-related positions [24] Future Labor Market Outlook - There is potential for marginal labor to return to the job market, with an increase in young job seekers aged 19-24, which may lead to higher unemployment rates if labor demand does not improve [25][30] - Small businesses remain cautious, with no improvement in hiring plans due to uncertainties in future policies and trade negotiations [28] - The labor market is at a turning point, with supply potentially exceeding demand, leading to a continued rise in the unemployment rate [30]

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield down by 7 basis points, likely due to dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [2] - Major global stock markets saw mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones increasing by 0.3% and 1.5% respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6% [2] - Oil prices rebounded, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively, and gold prices increased by 1.1% [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Powell signaled a dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, indicating that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance due to increased risks of employment downturn and reduced inflation risks [4] - The Fed's July meeting minutes suggested that officials believe interest rates are close to neutral, and maintaining the current stance is appropriate [4] - The Bank of Japan approved the first domestic yen stablecoin, JPYC, supporting financial technology innovation [4] US Economic Dynamics - The US housing market remains weak, with July new housing starts showing a year-on-year increase primarily due to a low base from the previous year [8] - The NAHB housing market index slightly decreased to 32, remaining in negative territory for 16 consecutive months [8] - The US has added 407 steel and aluminum products to its tariff list, with a 50% tax rate, which may increase procurement costs for downstream manufacturing companies [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone showed resilience with a 0.1% GDP growth in Q2 and a July CPI annual rate of 2%, aligning with the ECB's target [19] - Japan's long-term bond yields have risen, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.7%, the highest since 1999, driven by inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal expansion [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts soon due to rising downside risks to employment and diminished upside risks to inflation, as indicated by Powell during the Jackson Hole meeting [2][3]. Employment and Inflation - Employment growth is slowing, indicating a decrease in job creation opportunities, while GDP growth has also decelerated in the first half of the year, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. - Inflation is approaching the Fed's target, with tariffs expected to have a gradual and uncertain impact on prices. There is a lack of sustained upward pressure on inflation due to downward pressure in the labor market, which reduces the likelihood of a wage-inflation spiral [3]. Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The Fed has revised its monetary policy framework to return to a flexible inflation targeting regime, allowing for adjustments without waiting for inflation to remain below 2% for an extended period. This change acknowledges the weakening labor supply and demand [6][7]. - The new framework removes references to the effective lower bound as a decisive economic characteristic, reflecting the current low interest rate environment and the potential for more frequent constraints on the federal funds rate [6]. - The Fed has shifted its view on maximum employment, now considering it as the highest level of employment that can be sustained in a context of price stability, rather than focusing on employment shortfalls [7]. Long-term Inflation and Employment Goals - The Fed maintains that a 2% inflation rate, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is most consistent with its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and price stability. Long-term inflation expectations should remain anchored at this level to enhance the Fed's ability to achieve maximum employment [8]. - The Fed's approach to monetary policy will balance the degree of deviation from its employment and inflation targets, considering the time required for both to return to target levels [8].