Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in January recorded a decline to 49.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and below the median level of the past five years [4][3] - Key sub-indices such as new orders, production, raw material inventory, and employment all showed a decrease, indicating a cooling in both supply and demand [4][2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points [6][4] Group 2 - The price index has risen significantly due to recent increases in commodity prices, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points, and the factory price index at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points [8][3] - The construction industry has seen a notable decline, with the new orders index dropping significantly, leading to a business activity index of 48.8%, the lowest since April 2020 [9][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, with the service sector also experiencing a slight decline, indicating overall weak economic conditions [9][12]

报 告 正 文 全年收支未达目 标 。 回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支， 首先， 税收收入明显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的重心； 其次， 财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降； 再次， 支出节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支； 最后， 土地财政持续低迷且波动较大，对广义财政收入构 成拖累。 2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别为 -2.9% 、 3.7% ，单独看 12 月当月的表现， 2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较上月回落 13.3 个百分点至 -18.5% ，广义 支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7% 。收入端来看， 12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面， 融资前置导致年底后劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善 财政依旧前置发力。 展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定，同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"，随着物价有望企 稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支"的效果或更为显著；此外， 1 月政府债发行规模显著高于 25 年同期的情况来看 ...

报 告 正 文 如期按兵不动。 本次议息会议中，美联储结束了自2025年9月以来连续三次降息操作，将利率稳定在3.5%-3.75%的目标范围内，符合预期。其中，有两位美联储理 事投了反对票，米兰（Stephen I. Miran）和沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）认为应该降息25bp，沃勒也被市场认为不支持降息，便会失去竞争美联储主席的机会，其他 10位理事均支持停止降息，内部分歧不大。 3月大概率延续按兵不动，鲍威尔在本次新闻发布会上表态明显偏鹰，对经济增长前景乐观，对劳动力市场的担忧减弱，若一季度失业率未出现进一步走高，美联 储大概率不会进一步降息。关于资产购买，美联储维持现有资产负债表操作，继续购买短期国债以保障市场流动性。 我们认为，一方面，失业率回落和薪资增速反弹是亮点，12月新增就业继续减少，11月职位空缺数、空缺率均创新低，表明就业市场继续承压。通胀有继续走低的 驱动，住房通胀大趋势仍在放缓。另一方面，美联储持续降息后，对经济的提振效应开始逐步显现，美国经济有望迎来阶段性企稳。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表示，就业市场经历了几个月的逐步走弱之后，劳动力市场可能趋于稳定，结构上劳动力供 ...

报 告 正 文 12月营收承压，利润改善。 12月，规上工企营业收入同比下降3.2%，降幅较上月扩大；工企利润同比增速上 升5.3%，由上月-13.1%转正，环比增速大幅高于近5年中位数，也是2018年以来首次出现年底利润环比上升， 或是由于11月下旬以来人民币升值带动企业利润回流。从工企利润的构成来看，12月利润率增速明显改善，是 利润改善的主要支撑；价格拖累小幅收窄，也对利润改善有帮助；营收降幅扩大，小幅拖累盈利。往后看，当 下内需偏弱仍然制约着企业营收和盈利的改善，人民币升值虽然不利于出口企业竞争力，但短期内或会诱发滞 留海外利润的回流，支撑短期利润增速；中长期来看，人民币升值也有利于遏制出口企业过度依赖价格竞争 的"内卷式"竞争现象，转向以技术升级、质量提升、品牌建设驱动的高质量发展，在市场竞争优胜劣汰的调整 过后，或指向中长期企业盈利能力上行。 有三点值得关注。一是人民币升值带动海外利润回流。 25年下半年以来，人民币兑美元出现升值趋势，同时 货物贸易项目下银行代客结售汇差明显扩大，或指向人民币升值预期下，外贸相关企业加速将滞留海外的利润 回流国内，历史上人民币持续升值往往也都伴随着银行代客结售汇差 ...

Core Insights - In the fourth week of January, there are positive signs in terminal demand with market activity recovering, second-hand housing sales performing well, and an increase in theme park visitor numbers. However, automotive sales remain low year-on-year, and service consumption shows divergence with a lackluster film box office performance [2] Real Estate - In the first four weeks of January, new home sales in 42 cities saw a narrowing decline, improving from -25.6% to -22.5% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales in 19 cities turned positive at 13.1% from -27.7% [4] - The average sales volume of new homes in 42 cities improved to a decline of -19.5% from -34.9% the previous week, and second-hand home sales in 19 cities increased to 44.4% from -6.9% [4] Automotive - In the first 18 days of January, retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars saw an expanded year-on-year decline, with retail sales down by 28% and wholesale sales down by 35% [6] - The production of semi-steel tires increased to 74.6%, indicating potential strength in wholesale orders despite weak retail performance [8] Textile and Apparel - In December, the textile and apparel sub-industry experienced a decline in export growth, with textile yarn exports down by 4.2% year-on-year and clothing exports down by 10.2% [12] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product wholesale price index increased this week, with pork prices rising by 2.4% and egg prices by 6.3% [16] Film Industry - The film box office revenue and audience numbers both declined, with box office revenue around 280 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 23.1% [20] Leisure and Entertainment - Theme park visitor numbers increased slightly, with Shanghai Disneyland seeing a rise to 54,000 visitors, although still down by 10.8% year-on-year [23] Employment - The national employment volume index decreased to 1.6, while the employment price index rose to 22.8, indicating a higher employment volume compared to last year but lower prices [28] Chemical Industry - The PTA industry chain saw most product prices rise, while the operating rates generally declined due to maintenance and reduced demand from downstream textile enterprises [33] Steel Industry - Steel prices and profit margins decreased, but steel production growth turned positive at 0.3%, indicating a recovery in output despite seasonal demand weakness [37] Cement Industry - National cement prices continued to decline, with a decrease in the cement enterprise capacity ratio, indicating a slowdown in production [43] Glass Industry - The average price of float glass increased slightly, but inventory levels rose, suggesting limited demand support [48] Oil Industry - Oil prices showed mixed trends, with Brent crude down and WTI crude up, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal refinery demand [52] Non-ferrous Metals - Prices for major non-ferrous metals rose, with copper and aluminum inventories increasing, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical factors [57] Coal Industry - Thermal coal prices fell due to reduced demand from warmer weather, while coking coal prices increased, indicating mixed trends in the coal market [62] Freight Transport - In the first 18 days of January, sea freight growth increased while land transport growth declined, reflecting changes in shipping demand [64] Passenger Transport - Domestic flight operations increased, while subway passenger volumes in 20 cities showed slight declines, indicating a recovery in long-distance travel [69] Power Industry - The average daily coal consumption of major power generation groups turned positive at 6.7% year-on-year, driven by increased heating demand [73]

核 心 观 点 一、财政加力效果如何？ 2025年财政政策保持较强的力度，不过经济增长的财政效应系数回落，一定程度反映了 财政扩张的经济增长"性价比"有所降低 ，主要或有三点原因： 首先，结构 转型降低了传统乘数， 2025年财政支出进一步转向资金沉淀率更高、见效周期更长的领域，财政支出的撬动效果不及预期； 其次，特别国债形成支出缓慢， 从中 央层面来看，2024年中央政府性基金本级支出仅完成预算的53.7%，2025年执行可能延续类似节奏；从地方层面来说，多地2025年上半年的预算执行报告反映了支 出进度落后的情况。2025年财政存款的增量高于历年同期，也印证了"资金趴账"的现象。 最后， 低物价制约财政效力， 一方面， 财政支出的"乘数效应"与消费拉 动作用被削弱， 另一方面， 财政收入对物价的敏感度较高，价格拖累了收入端。 二、政策重点有何变化？ 2026 年一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定，同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"，随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端 的制约减弱， 财政"增支"的效果或更为显著。 2026年工作目标和重点工作方面， 首先，内需仍是重点工作首位 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy achieved a GDP growth of 5% for the year, successfully meeting the target [2][11] - Exports continued to support growth, benefiting from reduced trade disruptions post the China-US Kuala Lumpur Agreement, with strong growth in the electronic and high-tech product sectors [2] - Investment saw a further decline, with all three major investment categories experiencing downward trends, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [2][4] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed signs of recovery, with the industrial added value for December increasing by 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively [3] - Exports contributed positively to industrial production, with a year-on-year increase in export delivery value of 3.2% [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, with private investment dropping by 17.2% [4] - Real estate investment experienced a significant decline of 35.8%, while manufacturing investment fell by 10.5% [4] - Infrastructure investment also faced challenges, with traditional and new standards showing declines of 15.9% and 12.2% respectively [4] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth slowed to 0.9% in December, marking a new low since 2023, influenced by the real estate cycle and consumer debt [7] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.5%, supported by policy initiatives [7] - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while discretionary goods showed a narrowing decline [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although the rate of decline improved compared to November [8] - New construction area decreased by 19.4%, while the completion area also faced a decline [8] - Housing prices continued to drop across various city tiers, with both new and second-hand residential prices decreasing [8] Employment and Economic Stability - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with previous months [11] - Overall, the economy is facing challenges from external uncertainties and ongoing structural adjustments, with a focus on expanding consumption as a key growth strategy for 2026 [11]

Key Points - The midterm elections will determine the distribution of seats between the two parties in Congress, impacting Trump's policy implementation during the latter half of his term [2][6] - Approximately one-third of Senate seats will be up for election, while all House seats will be contested [7][9] - The House of Representatives is currently controlled by the Republican Party, which holds a slim majority, while the Senate has a more solid Republican presence [9][22] Election Highlights - Key dates include "Super Tuesday" on March 3, where early primaries will take place in North Carolina and Texas, potentially reflecting party dynamics and voter sentiment [3][11] - June will see a peak in primaries with 16 states holding elections, including critical battlegrounds like California and New Jersey [11] Influencing Factors - Redistricting is a significant factor, as both parties are actively working to redraw district boundaries to enhance their chances of winning seats [4][16] - Voter satisfaction, particularly regarding inflation and economic issues, is crucial, with Trump's approval rating dropping from 50% to 43% over the past year [19][21] Potential Outcomes - Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats in the House during midterm elections, with only 4 out of 31 instances since 1902 where the ruling party maintained its position [22] - If the Democrats regain control of the House, it could significantly impact fiscal legislation, as only the House can initiate tax and revenue-related bills [23]

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has announced an increase in structural monetary policy tools while indicating that there is still room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, maintaining a cautious approach towards broad monetary easing [2] - Structural interest rate cuts are aimed at reducing costs for banks and creating conditions for future policy rate reductions, with a potential RRR cut expected in the first quarter [2][3] Financial Data Overview - In December, the year-on-year growth of M1 continued to decline, while M2 growth rebounded, primarily due to increased fiscal spending at year-end and a shift of government deposits to residents and enterprises [2][9] - Social financing in December showed a decrease of 646.2 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bonds being the main drag on this decline [6] Loan Dynamics - December saw a total of 9.1 trillion yuan in new RMB loans, with improvements mainly from the corporate sector, while the residential sector continued to show weakness with a reduction of 916 billion yuan in loans [8] - The corporate sector's loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, with short-term loans rising by 370 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 330 billion yuan [8] Structural Policy Adjustments - The central bank has implemented a series of structural monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.25% reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and an increase in specific loan quotas for agriculture, small enterprises, and technological innovation [3] - A new 1 trillion yuan loan quota has been established for private enterprises, along with expanded support for carbon reduction and service consumption [3] Deposit Trends - In December, M2 year-on-year growth rebounded to 8.5%, with a notable increase in household deposits by 2.6 trillion yuan, while corporate deposits saw a rise of 1.2 trillion yuan [9] - The gap between M2 and M1 growth rates widened to 4.7%, indicating a decrease in the liquidity of funds [9]

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth recorded a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in December, driven by strong performance in the electronics and high-tech sectors, while imports also saw significant growth, particularly in energy and electronic products [2][4][12]. Export Performance - December's export growth of 6.6% represents a 0.7 percentage point increase from November, with the growth rate exceeding the median of the past five years, indicating increased export momentum [2][4]. - The electronics sector saw a notable increase in export growth, rising by 13.6 percentage points to 15.9%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall export growth [4]. - High-tech product exports also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 16.9%, contributing 4.0 percentage points to overall export growth [4]. - Exports to neighboring regions surged, particularly to Hong Kong (31.5%) and ASEAN (11.3%), while exports to the US (-30.2%) and the EU (11.5%) declined [6]. Import Performance - Imports grew by 5.7% year-on-year in December, a significant increase of 3.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by higher imports of energy and electronic products [12][14]. - Notably, imports from the EU increased by 17.9%, while imports from the US decreased by 28.6% [12]. - The import growth was supported by both volume and price increases across various categories, with energy and electronic products showing substantial improvement [14]. Trade Balance - China's trade surplus expanded slightly to $114.14 billion in December, with net exports continuing to support the economy [17]. - The outlook for exports in early 2026 remains positive, with expectations of sustained resilience despite potential declines in growth rates due to external factors [19].