报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 股市普遍上行。 股市方面 ，本周全球主要股市普遍上涨。美股三大指数来看，本周标普500、道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨3.7%、3.2%和4.9%。 债市 方面， 海外主要市场债市收益率分化，10年期美债收益率下跌4bp。 商品方面， 原油价格震荡，WTI原油下跌0.6%，布伦特原油上涨0.1%，本周伦敦金价上 涨3.8%。 汇率方面， 美元指数下跌0.7%。 | 全球股市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | 全球债市 | 周涨跌幅(bp) | 月沸跌幅(bp) | 全球汇市 | 周涨跌幅(%) | 月 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标普500 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 美国国债收益率:2年 | -4.0 | -13.0 | 美元指数 | -0.7 | 1.8 | | 道琼斯 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 美国国债收益率:10年 | -4.0 | -11.0 | 美元兑离岸人民币 | -0.6 | -0.8 | | 纳斯达克 | 4.9 | -1.5 | 中 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, while global stock markets showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets generally rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, while London gold prices increased by 2.1% [2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards pausing interest rate cuts in December, citing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures [5] - European Central Bank officials indicated that inflation risks in the Eurozone are skewed to the upside due to increased government spending on military and infrastructure as the economy accelerates [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government has reopened after a 43-day shutdown, with key economic data set to be released soon. However, some data from October may be permanently lost, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making for December [9] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 98.2, the lowest in six months, indicating challenges in sales and profit margins, as well as difficulties in finding qualified employees [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index dropped to -7.4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economy and concerns over high fiscal debt limiting policy options [18] - The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5% in September, leading to increased pressure on the government and the Bank of England to consider tax cuts and interest rate reductions [18]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global commodity prices have declined, with major stock markets showing mixed results; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining stable compared to last week [2] - Oil prices decreased, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing divisions regarding interest rate cuts, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting key inflation data; some officials advocate for a cautious approach while others see inflation as a more pressing concern [5] - The European Central Bank announced that Bulgaria will adopt the euro on January 1, 2026, with the central bank governor gaining voting rights on the governing council [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to the potential reversal of $100 billion in tariff revenue [9] - Recent local elections indicate a resurgence for the Democratic Party, with victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City [9] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined to 50.3, close to historical lows, due to the ongoing government shutdown and its negative impacts [10] - The liquidity situation in the U.S. is tightening, with the SOFR rate spiking to 4.22% and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction potentially exacerbating the funding shortage [10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, although layoffs in certain sectors remain a concern [11] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, driven by weak demand for fuel and non-food items, while food and beverage sales remained stable [18] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady at 50%, indicating slight recovery, but new export orders and employment levels continue to decline [18]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's export growth rate recorded a decline of -1.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in export momentum due to a high base from the previous year and a weakening global economy [2][3]. Export Performance - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and ongoing global economic slowdown, compounded by the U.S. imposing additional tariffs [2][3]. - Exports to neighboring regions and the U.S. remain resilient, while significant declines are observed in exports to the EU, Latin America, and Africa [8]. Product Categories - The automotive sector benefited from a low base, showing a significant increase in exports, while electronics and labor-intensive products experienced declines [10]. - In terms of quantity and price, the contribution of quantity to export growth has decreased, while price contributions have increased for representative goods [5]. Import Trends - China's import growth rate fell to 1% in October, a decrease of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a simultaneous slowdown in production and domestic demand [12]. - Only agricultural products saw an increase in imports, while other categories like industrial raw materials and electronics experienced declines [15]. Trade Balance - China's trade surplus narrowed slightly to $90.07 billion in October, but net exports continue to support the economy [18]. - Looking ahead, a rebound in exports is expected in November due to a lower base effect, with potential benefits from easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a recovering European economy [18].

Global Asset Price Performance - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points. Major global stock markets saw gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 2.2% respectively. In the commodity market, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 2% and 1.5%, while gold prices dropped by 2.7%. The US dollar index strengthened by 0.8% [2][3]. Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points during the October meeting, with plans to end balance sheet reduction by December. There were internal disagreements, with two members opposing the rate cut. Fed Chair Powell indicated that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, citing concerns over missing key economic data due to the government shutdown and worries about inflation stabilization. The European Central Bank maintained its interest rates, stating that inflation remains close to the 2% target [4][5][6]. US Economic Dynamics - The US government shutdown continues, with the Senate rejecting a temporary funding bill, leading to estimated economic losses of $7 billion to $14 billion. There are hopes among some Republicans for former President Trump to intervene. Meanwhile, the US and China have extended a truce in their trade war, with the US canceling a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and suspending other tariffs for a year. Additionally, a trade agreement was reached between the US and South Korea [9][10]. Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q3, but overall performance remains weak due to sluggish consumption and industrial capacity issues. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is at 6.3%, with youth unemployment rising. The US and Japan announced a $550 billion investment plan focusing on energy, AI, and critical minerals. Tokyo's core CPI rose to 2.8%, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% target due to rising utility prices. Israel has resumed airstrikes on Gaza in response to attacks from Hamas [16][17][18].

Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent US-China trade negotiations includes a 10% reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods related to fentanyl, with corresponding adjustments on US agricultural exports like soybeans and energy products [3] - The US will suspend the 24% reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods and the 50% export control rules announced on September 29 for one year, with China also adjusting its counter-tariffs and export controls accordingly [3] - Both parties agreed to suspend the 301 investigations into maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [3] Group 2 - The results of the negotiations align with market expectations and previous predictions, indicating a trade-off between rare earth controls and soybean purchases in exchange for fentanyl tariff reductions and other US restrictions [5] - Following the negotiations, the likelihood of escalating tariff conflicts is low, and there is potential for further reductions in fentanyl tariffs in future discussions [6] - Despite the recent retreat of the US in trade confrontations, ongoing competition between the two nations may lead to continued conflicts, particularly in sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and pharmaceuticals [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, gradually replacing MBS with short-term government bonds [2] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate cut, with some advocating for a 50 basis points cut while others oppose any reduction [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, indicating a shift towards an oversupply of labor [3][6] Group 2 - Inflation lacks sustained upward momentum, with the core CPI falling by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, suggesting that tariff costs are taking time to be passed on to consumers [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's assessment of employment and inflation is based on available data due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [5] - Economic growth is described as expanding at a moderate pace, although consumer spending has weakened, particularly in retail [8] Group 3 - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains cautious, with the Beige Book indicating a decline in consumer spending and a preference for discounts among lower-income groups [8] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the labor market and inflation dynamics [9] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be delayed due to the absence of economic data, which complicates the assessment of labor market risks [9]

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices have decreased, while major global stock markets have shown an upward trend this week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.9%, 2.2%, and 2.3% respectively [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices have seen an increase, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 8.4% and 8.1% respectively, while London gold prices fell by 3.2% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 0.4% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - September inflation data has reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, with the U.S. core CPI showing a year-on-year decline [5] - The Federal Reserve is focusing on digital assets and AI payment integration, with a new "streamlined main account" allowing non-bank institutions direct access to the Fed's payment channels [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde highlighted the need for an annual investment of approximately €150 billion to enhance energy security and sustainability in the EU [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government remains shut down as the Senate has repeatedly rejected temporary funding bills [9] - The core CPI for September has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 3%, indicating a cooling in inflation [9] - Existing home sales have rebounded by 1.5% month-on-month in September, driven by lower mortgage rates and a slowdown in home price increases [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France's credit rating has been downgraded from "AA-" to "A+" due to high public finance uncertainty [13] - Sanctions against Russia have intensified, with the U.S. and EU implementing new measures targeting Russian oil exports and cryptocurrency platforms [13] - Japan's new Prime Minister aims to maintain monetary easing and implement large-scale economic stimulus plans [14] Key Focus for Next Week - Upcoming data releases include U.S. housing price indices and Eurozone GDP figures, along with central bank meetings from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [21][22]