Spotify：小瑕疵不改大趋势，高估值遭遇情绪杀

Core Viewpoint - Spotify's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed lower-than-expected revenue and profit guidance, leading to a significant drop in stock price due to high valuation concerns [2][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The primary reason for the stock decline was the Q1 revenue miss, with Q2 revenue guidance set at €4.2 billion, below market expectations of €4.38 billion [3][4]. - Q2 revenue growth is projected at only 13%, significantly lower than the previously anticipated 20% growth, raising market concerns [4]. - Despite the revenue miss, Q1 operating profit reached €510 million, a 203% year-over-year increase, with a profit margin of 12% [7][10]. User Metrics and Pricing Strategy - The key factor for the revenue shortfall was a lower-than-expected Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU), which grew only 3.9% year-over-year, below the market's 5% expectation [5]. - Q1 saw a net addition of 5 million subscribers, exceeding guidance, primarily driven by growth in Latin America and Europe [5]. - The company adopted a one-price strategy in emerging markets, which improved user conversion but limited short-term ARPPU growth [5]. Advertising and Content Strategy - Q1 saw significant growth in ad-supported user numbers, contributing to an increase in advertising revenue and gross margin [6]. - Spotify's recent contract renewals with major labels have led to higher demands regarding traffic distribution, potentially impacting subscription gross margins [6]. Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses, including R&D and sales, showed a year-over-year decline, indicating improved operational efficiency [6]. - The company is leveraging AI to enhance user experience and internal efficiency, which may accelerate product development [6]. Cash Flow and Investment - Q1 free cash flow reached €534 million, doubling year-over-year and accounting for 13% of total revenue [8]. - As of the end of Q1, Spotify had accumulated nearly €8 billion in cash and short-term investments, with plans to seek investment opportunities while considering shareholder returns [9]. Market Valuation and Future Outlook - The market's valuation of Spotify has been heavily reliant on the expectation of sustained 20% growth, with current valuations suggesting a forward EV/EBITDA of nearly 40x for 2026 [12]. - Despite the Q1 performance, the long-term outlook remains positive due to improved market penetration and enhanced bargaining power in the industry [12]. - The company is viewed as a quality long-term investment, although it is suggested that a favorable entry price is essential for potential investors [13].