日央行按兵不动，植田和男：如果经济前景实现将继续加息

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% for the second consecutive time, citing "extremely high uncertainty" in trade policies as a significant concern for the economic and inflation outlook [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The BOJ's decision was made with a unanimous 9-0 vote, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The central bank has lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts, indicating a cautious outlook for the economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the impact of tariffs has made the economic and inflation outlook more challenging, with actual interest rates remaining notably low [3][10]. - The BOJ noted that while consumer spending is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, households may adopt a more defensive attitude towards spending, potentially exerting downward pressure on the economy [4]. Group 3: Trade Policy and Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is highlighted as a critical factor, with potential implications for exports and production, which may continue to show weakness [4][5]. - The BOJ expressed concerns that global logistics disruptions or supply chain restructuring could lead to increased import prices, which might suppress domestic demand [5]. Group 4: Inflation and Price Stability - The BOJ anticipates that core inflation may reach its target in the latter half of the forecast period, despite recent increases in food prices [5][10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the effects of foreign exchange and other market fluctuations on the Japanese economy and prices [6][11]. Group 5: Future Rate Changes - The possibility of interest rate hikes within the year has shifted from "when" to "if," depending on the outcomes of ongoing tariff negotiations [7][9]. - Ueda indicated that a successful tariff agreement could serve as a significant marker for future monetary policy decisions [8].