贝森特称市场认为美联储应降息，萨默斯驳斥：不能靠市场指导，下周降息大错

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield signals that the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates, as it has fallen below the federal funds rate [1][4]. Group 1: Treasury Secretary's Statements - Becerra's comments align with President Trump's criticism of the Fed for not lowering rates this year, suggesting that declining energy and other prices justify a rate cut [2]. - Becerra has previously stated he would refrain from commenting on the Fed's rate policy, yet he now suggests a need for consideration of rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The market reacted to Becerra's comments with skepticism, as the two-year Treasury yield increased by 10 basis points to 3.7%, indicating a lack of confidence in the call for a rate cut [3]. - Financial market participants generally expect the Fed to maintain interest rates, given that inflation remains above the 2% target and recent tariffs imposed by Trump are likely to exert upward pressure on prices [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Timiraos noted that the two-year Treasury yield has been below the Fed's short-term policy rate for most of 2023 and 2024, reflecting two investor expectations: a "soft landing" for the economy or a recession leading to a drop in inflation and subsequent rate cuts [5]. - Concerns were raised about the potential for the Fed to lower rates too quickly, which could exacerbate persistent inflation risks [6][7].