行业透视｜沪深杭二手高改和豪宅成交量价齐增预示止跌回稳进程加快

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has shown resilience in transaction volume, with a notable increase in sales compared to new homes, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards second-hand properties due to limited new supply and a focus on asset preservation and appreciation [2][26]. Group 1: Transaction Volume and Price Segments - In the first quarter of 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 30 key cities increased by over 2% year-on-year, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing growth rates exceeding 35% [2]. - The concentration of transactions in the low-price segment (under 500 million) remains high in Beijing, while other cities have seen a decline in concentration in this segment [4]. - The transaction volume in the price range of 500-3000 million has shown a steady increase in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, indicating strong demand for high-end properties [8]. Group 2: Area and Property Type Trends - The proportion of transactions for properties over 140 square meters has increased, reflecting strong demand for larger and luxury homes in the four cities [12]. - In the 70 square meters and below segment, Beijing has seen a decline in transaction share, while Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have shown an upward trend, driven by policy adjustments that stimulate demand from first-time buyers [16]. - Core urban areas are seeing an increase in transaction share, with notable activity in districts such as Haidian and Dongcheng in Beijing, and Nanshan and Futian in Shenzhen [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high-end and luxury segments in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are experiencing a "volume and price increase" trend, with properties in hot areas showing good appreciation potential [22][24]. - Approximately half of the first-time buyer communities have stabilized in terms of pricing, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices in these segments [25]. - The overall market is transitioning from a "price for volume" strategy to a "volume increase with stable prices," suggesting a gradual recovery in the second-hand housing market [26].