克而瑞地产研究

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行业透视 | 城市更新催生代建需求,企业如何“入场”?
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-25 09:05
能否真正理解政策、整合资源、平衡多方诉求,将成为代建企业能否在城市更新赛道上实现规模与品牌突破的关键。 ◎ 文/ 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 随着城市更新政策的不断落地,有望进一步释放政府代建的需求。然而,与传统开发不同,城市更新类代建项目复杂度高、周期 长、利益相关方多元,要求企业不仅需具备工程管理与合规能力,更要在产业导入、文化保育、资金协同乃至风险化解方面构建系 统竞争力。 能否真正理解政策、整合资源、平衡多方诉求,将成为代建企业能否在这条赛道上实现规模与品牌突破的关键。 城市更新政策力度、资金支持力度持续提升 01 有望进一步释放政府代建的需求 2025年以来,城市更新成为房地产政策端重要一环,在房地产市场中占据着关键地位,得到了政府在表态、政策制定和资金支持方 面的显著扶持。 政府表态上: 2025年7月的两次重要会议(中央城市工作会议和中央政治局会议)中均提及城市更新,中央城市工作会议指出当前 和今后一个时期城市工作的总体要求包括"以推进城市更新为重要抓手";7月末的中央政治局会议要求落实城市工作会议精神,高质 量开展城市更新。 政策出台上: 2025年以来,配合中央城市工作高质量发展的方针,城市更新类政策的 ...
丁祖昱:锚定区域核心,政策与人口驱动的阿联酋投资新机遇 | 中东高峰论坛后记
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-25 09:05
9月23日, 由克而瑞主办的"全球视野·中东机遇——2025中东不动产投资高峰论坛"在上海举办 。克而 瑞集团董事长丁祖昱先生、克而瑞集团CEO张燕女士携手国内外、来自产学研跨界专家、领袖、高管出 席论坛并发布重要研究成果及主题演讲。 克而瑞集团董事长丁祖昱先生发布克而瑞最新研究成果《2025上半年阿联酋住宅市场趋势报告》,并就报 告作精粹演讲: 一、海外房地产投资需锚定 "区域中心城市" ▲点击图片查看论坛实录 丁祖昱 克而瑞集团董事长 海外房地产投资应聚焦区域中心城市,阿联酋的迪拜与阿布扎比是中东地区的核心选择。从全球投资规律 来看,成熟市场的龙头城市往往是房地产投资的关键落点,如美国纽约、英国伦敦、东南亚新加坡等。阿 联酋作为中东龙头,其核心城市迪拜与阿布扎比具备区域金融中心、经济中心的属性,而非仅局限于国家 层面的中心定位。 二、阿联酋优势:经济稳健增长・人口活力充沛・政策红利释放 阿联酋宏观经济结构稳健,为房地产市场提供坚实支撑。据数据显示,2024 年阿联酋实际 GDP 同比增长 4%,总量达 1.78 万亿迪拉姆,且央行预测 2025 年、2026 年增速将升至 4.4%、5.4%,增长动能强劲 ...
行业透视|头部房企加速布局社群运营,华润、华发均已设立集团IP
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-25 09:05
◎ 文 / 沈晓玲、洪宇桁 现象:地产社群关注度爆发式增长,微信搜索量激增近十倍 01 | 维度 | 客户俱乐部 | 社群 | | --- | --- | --- | | 本质 | 企业主导的交易关系管理工具 | 成员共创的生活方式共同体 | | 核心目标 | 促进销售、提升复购率 | 构建社区文化、增强用户粘性 | | 运营主体 | 企业单向输出 | 企业赋能、成员自主 | | 价值创造 | 物质激励(折扣、特权) | 情感共鸣、精神认同、资源共享 | | 技术基础 | 线下活动、电话、会刊 | 移动互联网、数字化工具、智能硬件 | | 行业阶段 | 增量开发、销售驱动 | 存量运营、服务驱动 | | | 中心化控制,企业主导规则与活动 | 去中心化运营,成员自主发起活动 | | 组织逻辑 | 封闭性,会员资格与购房行为强绑定 | 开放性,打破业主与非业主界限 | | | 交易属性、权益设计围绕商业目标 | 情感属性,通过共同兴趣与价值观连接 | | | 低频单向沟通,企业推送信息为主 | 高频双向互动、线上线下多渠道实时交流 | | 互动模式 | 功能化场景,聚焦购房相关服务 | 场景化生态,覆盖全生活场 ...
评司论企|从空间到生活,越秀地产社群运营的场景化深耕之道
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 09:08
Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu Property has developed a unique "scene-based deep cultivation" strategy through a comprehensive community ecosystem that integrates customer insights, spatial innovation, and resource ecology, enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty [2][4][27] Group 1: Strategic Elevation - The community strategy is not merely a customer maintenance tool but is rooted in deep considerations for corporate strategic transformation, initiated in 2021 with extensive customer research involving over 43,000 homeowners [4][6] - The company has established a "1+N" community platform operation matrix, centered around the brand "Love Yue Club," integrating online content communities, offline community spaces, and lifestyle brands to create a service loop throughout the customer lifecycle [4][6] Group 2: Scene Reconstruction - Yuexiu's core competitiveness lies in the "scene + content" operation of spaces, achieving a 20% reduction in sustainable operating costs through product branding and standardization [10][11] - The company has launched various community cultural events and IPs, such as the "Remarkable Little New Star," which has engaged over 28,000 families, enhancing brand and customer stickiness [14][16] - The establishment of the "Yuexiu Life Partner" community co-construction IP aims to link various stakeholders for value co-creation, with over 30 unique community operations incubated [18][20] Group 3: Operational Innovation - Yuexiu's community operations exhibit three differentiated characteristics, focusing on deep collaboration across the customer lifecycle and utilizing tools like the "Love Yue Club" mini-program to connect with a broad customer base [24][25] - The company plans to establish a "customer operation" evaluation model by 2025, assessing brand assets, customer value, and commercial value [25] - The integration of community operation capabilities into a branded platform is part of a broader exploration of sustainable business models, including light asset operations and social capital linkage [26][27]
复旦大学罗长远:中国与阿联酋及阿拉伯国家合作具备坚实基础与独特优势 | 中东高峰论坛后记
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the significant opportunities for investment in the Middle East real estate market, particularly in light of evolving international trade dynamics and the strengthening of China-Arab cooperation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trends in Trade and Investment - Global trade is undergoing notable adjustments, providing a macro environment that supports China-Arab cooperation [2]. - Seven key trends in trade were identified, including the rising importance of regional trade, emphasis on fair trade (highlighting ESG and labor protection), and increased focus on green and value-based trade, aligning with the cooperation needs in energy and environmental sectors [3]. - In the investment domain, six adjustment directions were noted, such as increased supply chain investment and risk-averse investment strategies, creating opportunities for collaboration in industrial and supply chains [3]. Group 2: Unique Advantages of China-Arab Cooperation - China possesses "three new" advantages: "new three items" (electric vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries) that meet the energy transition needs of Arab countries, "new quality productivity" (represented by digital economy and AI capabilities) that can enhance digital cooperation, and "new channels" (trade and investment pathways through third countries) that can help overcome international trade barriers [3]. - The cooperation has already established diverse pathways and representative cases, with significant future potential [3]. Group 3: Free Trade Agreement Negotiations - The free trade agreement negotiations between China and the Gulf Cooperation Council (including the UAE) have been ongoing for 21 years, currently in the 11th round, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing economic ties [3]. - The Gulf Cooperation Council's robust economic strength and energy reserves make it an attractive investment destination for China, with previous free trade agreements with countries like Singapore, Japan, and South Korea serving as valuable references for ongoing negotiations [3].
IFCX & Asia Bankers club赖衍铭:阿联酋房产投资将成兼顾收益与风险之选择 | 中东高峰论坛后记
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the shift in investor focus from high returns to a balanced approach of risk and return, particularly emphasizing the opportunities in the UAE real estate market as a prime investment choice due to its unique advantages and growth potential [3]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The "Global Vision: Middle East Opportunities - 2025 Middle East Real Estate Investment Summit" was held in Shanghai, organized by CRIC, featuring key speakers from various sectors [1]. - Notable presentations included a speech by Lai Yanming, CEO of IFCX Group and Asia Bankers Club, discussing asset pricing choices from a risk-return perspective [2]. Group 2: Market Insights - The global economic slowdown has led investors to prioritize a balanced approach to risk and return, affecting pricing strategies across developers, consumer psychology, and institutional market choices [3]. - Emerging markets, particularly the Middle East, are becoming increasingly important for investment, with the UAE standing out due to its strategic location and abundant oil and gas resources [3]. - The UAE's real estate market is experiencing rapid growth, supported by diverse developments in finance, tourism, and digital economy, alongside a continuous influx of population [3]. - The UAE's advantages in economy, finance, property rights, and services are expected to remain unmatched by other regions for a considerable time, making it a prime location for real estate investment [3]. - The transfer of global financial centers to Dubai and Abu Dhabi indicates a significant opportunity for real estate investment and sovereign wealth fund transfers, positioning UAE real estate as an excellent choice for balancing risk and return [3].
专题 | 2025年上半年房企盈利能力报告——毛利率修复至10.87%,净利润维持亏损
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 09:08
Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China continues to face significant challenges, with a decline in both revenue and profit, leading to a net profit loss for four consecutive years. The industry is undergoing deep adjustments, and companies must adapt their operational strategies to ensure profitability and navigate through the current cycle [3][6][18]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Decline - The overall revenue of typical listed real estate companies decreased by 15% to 12,868 billion, while gross profit fell by 9% [4][6]. - The gross profit margin for the industry was recorded at 10.87%, with a net profit margin of -7.45%, indicating a sustained loss [8][6]. - The net profit loss reached 902 billion, with attributable net profit loss at 954 billion, marking a continuous decline in profitability since 2022 [6][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends - 66% of real estate companies reported net profit losses, with four companies experiencing losses exceeding 10 billion [12][15]. - The industry’s return on equity (ROE) has further declined, remaining at historically low levels [15]. - Nearly 60% of companies saw a decrease in gross profit, while operational business recovery is essential for improving profitability [15][12]. Group 3: Inventory and Asset Valuation - The period saw inventory impairment losses amounting to 49.4 billion, with over 70% of companies recognizing such losses [13][16]. - The fair value of investment properties suffered a loss of 3.3 billion due to declining demand in commercial properties [16][13]. - The overall income from investment properties decreased by 3%, accounting for 5% of total revenue [11][23]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Companies are shifting focus from scale expansion to quality competition, with asset operations becoming a stabilizing factor during the cycle [17][19]. - Major firms are planning to enhance their operational capabilities and asset management through public REITs and other innovative financing methods [21][19]. - The industry outlook suggests that the second half of 2025 or 2026 could be pivotal for market stabilization, emphasizing the need for precise investment and product upgrades [19][18].
观点精粹|克而瑞战略性探索海外市场,“全球视野·中东机遇——2025中东不动产投资高峰论坛”圆满举行
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 03:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "2025 Middle East Real Estate Investment Summit" held in Shanghai, focusing on the opportunities in the UAE real estate market and the strategic collaboration between Chinese and Arab enterprises to enhance investment decisions and market insights [2][5]. Group 1: UAE Real Estate Market Insights - CRIC released the "2025 Mid-Year UAE Residential Market Trend Report," marking its second in-depth study of the UAE real estate market in 2023, following the initial white paper in May [2][3]. - The report emphasizes key market dynamics in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, analyzing economic performance, urban planning, real estate transaction characteristics, and competitive landscape [2][3]. - The UAE's economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with a GDP of 1.78 trillion dirhams, supported by a diversified economic structure where non-oil sectors contribute 75.5% [11][12]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Market Drivers - The UAE's population is expected to exceed 12.5 million by 2024, with a 23% increase from 2023, and a significant portion of the population being expatriates, which drives housing demand [11]. - Dubai's real estate market shows robust growth, with a 40% increase in total transaction value to 326.9 billion dirhams in the first half of 2025, and a rental yield of 5.3% for high-end properties [14][30]. - Abu Dhabi's residential market also demonstrates potential, with a 30% year-on-year increase in transaction value to 21.853 billion dirhams in the first half of 2025 [13]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations and Future Plans - CRIC plans to develop a comprehensive overseas real estate database and release additional reports covering popular global regions to support Chinese investors [4]. - The collaboration with Asia Bankers Club aims to enhance research and expand into the global real estate market, providing a full lifecycle service system for overseas property investment [3][4]. - The summit facilitated cross-disciplinary discussions among experts from academia, industry, and government, highlighting the importance of strategic partnerships in navigating the evolving investment landscape [5][6]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Environment - The UAE's favorable investment policies, including low registration fees and the absence of property taxes, significantly enhance its attractiveness to global investors [12]. - The government's initiatives, such as the 2031 National Investment Strategy and the Golden Visa program, are designed to optimize the foreign investment environment and attract high-net-worth individuals [15][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding regional security dynamics and geopolitical factors that could impact investment decisions in the Middle East [15].
重磅发布!阿联酋 2025 年住宅市场深度报告:多重红利驱动市场增长
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-24 03:03
Core Insights - The UAE real estate market is experiencing significant opportunities driven by a combination of policy, economic, and planning benefits [2][4][6] Economic Growth and Diversification - The UAE's economy is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5% to GDP, marking a historical high [2][4] - The tourism sector is particularly strong, contributing 13% to GDP in 2024, with international tourist spending exceeding 217 billion dirhams [4][6] Population Dynamics - The UAE's population is expected to reach 12.5 million by 2024, a 23% increase from 2023, primarily due to the influx of expatriates [8][10] - The age demographic shows that 68.62% of the population is between 25-54 years old, indicating a robust labor force and strong consumer spending potential [10][11] Policy Environment - The UAE has optimized its visa policies to attract international investment, including lowering the threshold for golden visas and allowing joint property investments [11][12] - The UAE ranked as the 10th largest destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024, attracting 167.6 billion dirhams, a 48% increase from the previous year [12][14] UAE-China Cooperation - Enhanced cooperation between China and the UAE in various sectors, including construction, investment, and tourism, is expected to deepen, with 22 agreements reached in the first half of 2025 [14] Abu Dhabi Market Insights - Abu Dhabi's GDP reached 291 billion dirhams in Q1 2025, with a 3.4% year-on-year growth, driven by a 6.1% increase in non-oil sectors [15][16] - The residential market in Abu Dhabi saw a 30% increase in transaction value in the first half of 2025, with off-plan sales contributing significantly [20][23] - The average residential price in Abu Dhabi reached 3.3 million dirhams, a 17% increase year-on-year [26] Dubai Market Insights - Dubai's GDP is projected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with tourism being a key growth driver, as evidenced by a 6% increase in international overnight visitors [38][40] - The Dubai real estate market recorded a historic high of 326.9 billion dirhams in transaction value in the first half of 2025, a 22% increase year-on-year [45][48] - Emaar led the Dubai market with a 46% increase in sales, reaching approximately 46 billion dirhams in the first half of 2025 [58] Conclusion - The UAE residential market is in a golden period characterized by policy benefits, economic transformation, and sustained population growth, making it a market to watch in 2025 [60]
土拍速递|厦门4宗宅地成交81.25亿元,均由本地国企竞得
克而瑞地产研究· 2025-09-23 04:36
Core Viewpoint - The recent land sales in Xiamen indicate a trend of local state-owned enterprises acquiring properties at base prices, reflecting a relatively subdued real estate market since 2025, with only a few high-quality residential plots sold at premium prices [2][5]. Summary by Sections Land Sales Overview - On September 23, four residential plots in Xiamen were sold for a total of 81.25 billion yuan, all acquired by local state-owned enterprises at base prices [2]. - The overall performance of the Xiamen real estate market has been relatively flat since 2025, with most land transactions occurring at base prices [2]. Detailed Analysis of Sold Plots - **Plot 078 (Siming District)**: Acquired by Xiamen Guomao for 22.2 billion yuan, with a floor price of 40,000 yuan/sqm. The plot is located in a core urban area and is expected to attract high-net-worth individuals due to its proximity to tech and service industries [5]. - **Plot 079 (Huli District)**: Acquired by Jianfa Real Estate for 20.38 billion yuan, with a floor price of 40,000 yuan/sqm. The site is conveniently located near public transport and various amenities, enhancing its residential appeal [9]. - **Plot 080 (Jimei District)**: Acquired by Xiangyu and Jimei Development for 22.69 billion yuan, with a floor price of 22,000 yuan/sqm. The area is expected to benefit from educational institutions, which may drive up property values [12]. - **Plot 081 (Haicang District)**: Acquired by Xiamen Metro for 15.98 billion yuan, with a floor price of 18,000 yuan/sqm. This plot is the last available for development on Dongyu Island, offering ecological advantages despite lower visibility due to surrounding developments [16]. Market Context - The overall trend in Xiamen's land sales suggests a cautious approach from developers, with most transactions occurring at base prices and limited premium sales, indicating a potential stagnation in the real estate market [2][5].