半导体——最新预测

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, reaching $67.5 billion, driven by the recovery of the overall semiconductor market and increasing demand for advanced materials in high-performance computing and high-bandwidth memory manufacturing [2] Semiconductor Materials Market Summary - In 2024, wafer manufacturing materials revenue is expected to grow by 3.3% to $42.9 billion, while packaging materials revenue is projected to increase by 4.7% to $24.6 billion [2] - The chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), photoresist, and photoresist auxiliary equipment segments are experiencing strong double-digit growth due to the complexity and number of processes required for advanced DRAM, 3D NAND flash, and cutting-edge logic ICs [2] - All semiconductor material segments, except silicon and silicon-on-insulator (SOI), are expected to show year-on-year growth [2] - Demand for silicon remains weak due to ongoing inventory digestion, leading to a projected 7.1% decline in silicon revenue in 2024 [2] Regional Market Insights - Taiwan continues to be the largest semiconductor materials consumer region with revenue of $20.1 billion for 15 consecutive years [3] - Mainland China is expected to achieve $13.5 billion in revenue, maintaining year-on-year growth and ranking second in 2024 [3] - South Korea ranks third with $10.5 billion in revenue, while all regions except Japan are expected to achieve single-digit growth in 2024 [3] Advanced Semiconductor Packaging Market Forecast - The advanced semiconductor packaging market is valued at $18.09 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $29.8 billion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% [5] - The shift in value creation from front-end miniaturization to back-end integration is anticipated to drive strong double-digit growth in the advanced semiconductor packaging market by 2030 [5] - Demand for heterogeneous chip architecture, high-bandwidth memory stacks, ultra-thin fan-out modules, and automotive-grade power packaging is continuously increasing [5] Packaging Technology Developments - Flip-chip packaging technology is replacing long wire bonding, providing improved thermal performance and enabling higher power ranges without compromising performance [6] - Fan-out wafer-level packaging (FO WLP) offers ultra-thin packaging suitable for space-constrained devices, enhancing economic viability for mid-range smartphones and IoT sensors [7] - Advanced packaging technologies are being adopted in automotive applications to meet stringent AEC Q100 standards, driven by the need for high reliability and durability [7] Market Drivers and Trends - The transition from monolithic scaling to heterogeneous integration is driving demand for advanced packaging, integrating logic, memory, analog, and photonic chips into single system-in-package solutions [8] - The proliferation of 5G base stations and edge AI gateways relies on advanced packaging methods to meet thermal and signal integrity requirements [8] - The demand for AI accelerators and high-performance computing is pushing OSAT manufacturers to develop larger organic substrates and advanced filling materials, leading to higher average selling prices and long-term capacity investments [9] Consumer Electronics and Wearable Devices - The growing demand for smartphones, AR glasses, and health monitoring wearables is prompting OEMs to shift towards WLP, FO PLP, and molded embedded packaging [10] - The reduction in the number of discrete components per circuit board is freeing up battery space and enhancing waterproof performance, while also shortening design cycles [10]