中美谈判，关税可能怎么降？中国股市会如何表现？｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations, emphasizing the short-term economic impact on China and proposing three strategies to mitigate these effects: expanding domestic demand, encouraging companies to go global, and reducing production capacity [1][6][12]. Group 1: Short-term Economic Impact - The tariff war poses a significant short-term challenge to the Chinese economy, with potential GDP impact estimated at 1.5 to 2 percentage points [8][12]. - There is a concern that some narratives downplay the impact on China, which may not be based on objective analysis [3][6]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - Expanding Domestic Demand: It is suggested to increase the fiscal deficit by an additional 1 to 1.5 trillion RMB to stimulate consumption, alongside long-term reforms to enhance social welfare [6][7]. - Encouraging Global Expansion: Companies are encouraged to explore international markets, with many planning IPOs in Hong Kong to raise capital for expansion beyond Southeast Asia [7][8]. - Reducing Production Capacity: The article highlights the challenges of reducing production capacity due to historical reliance on supply-side policies and the need for a shift in development focus [7][8]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Most countries are unlikely to reach quick agreements with the US, which could prolong the global trade downturn and its effects on China [11][12]. - The complexity of US-China negotiations suggests that any reduction in tariffs will take time, with expectations for some tariffs to decrease by mid-year but more significant reductions possibly not occurring until late in the year [12][14]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The article notes a shift in investor sentiment towards China, with increased interest from global investors, although concerns remain about China's ability to maintain a role in global free trade [8][18]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform relatively well, supported by government interventions, despite concerns from overseas investors regarding the underlying economic fundamentals [14][15].