雪球·2025-05-03 02:28Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of various banking sectors in China, highlighting that the six major banks and rural commercial banks are generally overvalued, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are seen as undervalued [2][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation - The "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) is introduced as a valuation parameter, calculated as Market Price to Earnings Ratio (PE) divided by Return on Equity (ROE), with a specific formula: PR = PE / (ROE / 100) [2][3]. - The average valuation of the six major banks' A-shares has reached above 1.0 PR, indicating overvaluation, while their H-shares average above 0.8 PR [4][5]. - The Postal Savings Bank is noted as the least favored among the six major banks, with a valuation below 1.0 PR in the A-share market [4]. Group 2: Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks are not generally overvalued, with an average A-share valuation of over 0.9 PR and H-share valuation at 0.8 PR [5][6]. - The disparity in valuation between A-shares and H-shares is highlighted, with examples such as China Merchants Bank showing stronger performance in H-shares compared to A-shares [5]. Group 3: City Commercial Banks - City commercial banks are identified as undervalued, with average A-share valuations around 0.8 PR, and specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank noted as significant value opportunities with valuations of 0.65 PR [7][8]. Group 4: Rural Commercial Banks - The article suggests that rural commercial banks are not as clear-cut in terms of valuation, as they are generally seen as growth banks with lower dividend payout ratios, leading to higher correction coefficients [9][10]. - Only one rural commercial bank, Changshu Bank, is noted to have a valuation below 0.4 PR, indicating limited undervaluation compared to city commercial banks [9][10]. Group 5: Growth Banks - Four banks are identified as growth stocks with improving ROE: Hangzhou Bank, Qilu Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Changshu Bank [11][12]. - The article emphasizes that the valuation of these growth banks may not reflect their potential due to their lower dividend payout ratios [11][12]. Group 6: Market Environment - The article discusses the impact of a low-interest environment on stock valuations, suggesting that while valuations should theoretically rise, the relationship is not strictly inverse [12]. - It is recommended that banks with high valuations should be sold as they rise, particularly in the A-share market above 1.0 PR and H-share market above 0.8 PR [12].