美股九连涨，收复“对等关税”以来所有跌幅，仍存三大质疑

Core Viewpoint - The recent "V-shaped recovery" in the US stock market has been driven by trade easing, strong economic data, and robust earnings from tech giants, but underlying concerns and skepticism remain prevalent in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Drivers of Market Recovery - Trade tensions are easing, with positive signals from the White House indicating a potential reduction in tariffs and a possible agreement with China, alleviating market anxiety [3]. - Strong economic data shows the US job market remains robust, with unemployment stable at 4.2%, providing confidence against external shocks [4]. - Earnings reports from major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft have been impressive, with significant stock price increases (Microsoft up 7.6%, Meta up 4.2%), further boosting the AI infrastructure-related stocks [6]. Group 2: Underlying Concerns - There is skepticism regarding the market's expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as the Fed's hawkish stance has not changed, leading to potential misjudgments in market optimism [8][9]. - The real economy shows signs of cooling, contrasting sharply with the tech sector's performance, raising doubts about the sustainability of the market rebound [13]. - Abnormal signals from the dollar and VIX indicate deeper market concerns, with a decoupling of the dollar from US bond yields suggesting a potential erosion of the US's global influence [14][16]. Group 3: Earnings and Economic Outlook - A significant increase in mentions of "recession" in earnings calls indicates growing corporate concerns about future prospects, with about 25% of S&P 500 companies discussing it, up from 2% in the previous quarter [15]. - Macro data supports these concerns, with a surprising 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP and signs of consumer spending fatigue observed by companies like McDonald's [15]. - Analysts are continuously downgrading earnings forecasts for the next two years, which typically suppresses stock prices, and uncertainty around tariff impacts complicates corporate guidance [15]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Risks - The current market rally appears to be driven more by short-covering rather than fundamental improvements, suggesting that if earnings expectations are further downgraded, valuation pressures may resurface [18]. - The world is transitioning from a free trade and globalization era to a new, undefined equilibrium, which will continue to impact market sentiment and stability [18].