雪球·2025-05-04 04:04Group 1: Hikvision - Hikvision's stock returns over the past 4, 6, and 8 years are -42%, -4%, and -16% respectively, despite net profits increasing from 3.1 billion in 2013 to a peak of 16.8 billion in 2021, then declining to 12.8 billion in 2022 and projected at 12 billion in 2024 [2][6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Hikvision over the past 8 years is 27.2 times, with a low dividend yield of 2.0% [7][6] - The stock price at the end of 2017 was 39.0 yuan with a P/E ratio of 38 times, leading to a significant loss if held until now [4][7] Group 2: Sinopec - Sinopec's net profit has fluctuated, with an average of 56.8 billion over the past 8 years, and only the stock price at the end of 2024 is expected to yield negative returns [12][11] - The average P/E ratio for Sinopec over the past 8 years is 11.4 times, with an average dividend yield of 7.2% [12][11] - Despite being perceived as a low-growth company, Sinopec has provided positive returns in 7 out of the last 8 years, with a cumulative dividend yield of 47.1% [12][11] Group 3: CNOOC - CNOOC's net profit increased from 24.7 billion in 2017 to 137.9 billion in 2024, with an average net profit of 79.6 billion over the past 8 years [16][14] - The average P/E ratio for CNOOC over the past 8 years is 8.0 times, with an average dividend yield of 9.1% [16][14] - CNOOC has shown strong returns, with a stock price increase of 169% from 11.22 HKD in 2017 to 16.76 HKD in 2025, despite experiencing negative returns only in 2024 [13][14] Group 4: Market Comparison - The Hang Seng Index has decreased by 26% from the end of 2017 to April 2025, while the A-share market has only seen a 1% decline [25][26] - Stocks perceived as high-quality, such as Hikvision, have resulted in losses, while lower-growth stocks like Sinopec have yielded positive returns [25][26] - CNOOC's performance has been significantly better than that of Hikvision and Sinopec, demonstrating the importance of valuation and dividend yield in investment returns [25][26]