专题 | 从北上深杭二手成交结构、房价变化看市场回稳进程

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with transaction volume increasing by 17% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in prices and market expectations [1][5][10]. Group 1: Transaction Trends - In Q1 2025, the total transaction area for both new and second-hand homes reached 82.04 million square meters, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, which is at the median level of the past six years [5]. - The year-on-year growth rate for second-hand homes outpaced that of new homes in most cities, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou seeing around 50% increases in second-hand transactions [6][8]. - The transaction volume for new homes in Shenzhen surged by 83% year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year [6]. Group 2: Listing Trends - The growth rate of new listings for second-hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 16% and 55% in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively, while Shenzhen and Hangzhou saw declines of 11% and 19% [12][14]. - The proportion of listings for luxury homes priced over 10 million yuan has increased in Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, while Shenzhen experienced a decline in high-end listings [15][20]. Group 3: Buyer Demand - The proportion of transactions for affordable housing remains above 50%, but the concentration has decreased, with higher demand for improved and luxury properties [23]. - The transaction share for properties priced between 5 million and 30 million yuan has increased, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards higher-value homes [23][31]. Group 4: Price Trends - Over 50% of second-hand housing communities in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have seen price increases, with Beijing reaching 46% [33]. - The bargaining space for second-hand homes in major cities has narrowed, with Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou all having less than 20% negotiation space [35][44]. - High-end properties are leading the price increases, with a significant portion of affordable housing also showing signs of price stabilization [44][45]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is transitioning from a "price-for-volume" strategy to a "volume-increase-price-stability" model, indicating a more active supply and demand dynamic [42]. - The concentration of transactions is shifting towards core urban areas, with notable increases in transaction volumes in key districts of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou [43].