【广发宏观陈嘉荔】五一假期海外宏观简评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in the United States, highlighting a negative growth in GDP, stable non-farm payroll data, and the implications of tariffs on trade and investment. It emphasizes the resilience of domestic demand despite external pressures and the potential for a technical rebound in GDP in the upcoming quarter. Group 1: Economic Growth and GDP - The actual GDP growth rate for Q1 2025 in the U.S. turned negative at -0.3%, compared to an expected -0.2% and a previous value of 2.4%. The decline was attributed to uncertainties from tariffs, leading to inventory accumulation and early imports, which negatively impacted net exports by 4.8 percentage points [1][5][6] - Despite the negative GDP growth, private final domestic demand showed resilience with a growth rate of +3.0%, including consumer spending at +1.8% and non-residential fixed investment at +9.8% [6][7] - A technical rebound in GDP is expected in Q2 2025 as imports decline and inventory adjustments occur, although a slowdown in domestic demand remains likely due to tariff constraints [6][12] Group 2: Labor Market and Non-Farm Payrolls - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for April showed an increase of 177,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 138,000, indicating stability in the labor market. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.19% from 4.15% [2][8][9] - The transportation and warehousing sectors saw job gains of 29,000, likely due to tariff-related early imports, while government employment faced a decline due to layoffs [9][10] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.6%, with notable increases in employment among various age groups, indicating a resilient labor market despite external pressures [10][11] Group 3: Tariff and Trade Policies - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have stalled, with the U.S. refusing to grant special treatment on tariffs for certain products. This has raised concerns about the potential impact on the automotive supply chain [18][19] - The U.S. has also initiated discussions on imposing 100% tariffs on films produced abroad, reflecting a broader trend of aggressive trade policies under the current administration [19] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with notable criticism from influential figures like Warren Buffett regarding the use of trade as a weapon [18][19] Group 4: Financial Market and Treasury - The U.S. Treasury's refinancing efforts are in line with expectations, maintaining the auction size of interest-bearing debt for the next several quarters. This is influenced by the Federal Reserve's slowing of quantitative tightening [13][14] - The Treasury is expected to rely more on T-bills for financing, with no anticipated increase in the auction size of interest-bearing debt throughout 2025 [14][15] - Concerns about the U.S. economic outlook and fiscal policy are contributing to increased risk premiums in the Treasury market, affecting investor confidence [16][17]