广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第二， 9 月点阵图（ dot plot ）显示至 2025 年底累计降息 75bp （ 6 月为 50bp ）， 2026 年和 2027 年各再降 25bp （和 6 月一致）。经济预测（ SEP ） 对 经济增长预期较 6 月 有所上修。 9 月 SEP 上调 2025 年、 2026 年和 2027 年实际 GDP 增速预测 0.2pct 、 0.2pct 、 0.1pct 至 1.6% 、 1.8% 、 1.9% ； 2025 年失业率中值预测维持在 4.5% ， 2026 年和 2027 年下修 0.1pct 至 4.4% 和 4.3% 。 2025 年核心 PCE 预测 3.1% ，持平于 6 月； 2026 上修 0.2pct 至 2.6% ， 2027 年保持不变 。 第三 ， 鲍威尔新闻发布会对本次降息的解读略偏鹰派。一是鲍威尔认为本次降息的目的是风险管理（ risk management cut ） ，正在把政策重点从通胀转向就 业 ；二是鲍威尔强调本次会议完全没有对降息 50bp 的支持 ...

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第四， 广义财政方面， 8 月财政口径下的土地收入增速进一步回落 12.9 个百分点至 -5.8% ；这一表现与高频数据一致， 8 月中指院 600 城商住 土地出让同比 -34.3% （前值 8.0% ）。同期经济数据亦显示 8 月地产销售、开工均降幅扩大，价格亦在低位。截至 8 月政府性基金收入累计同比 为 -1.4% ，全年广义财政收入完成目标增速（ 0.7% ）的难度较大。支出方面则相对韧性，受特别国债、专项债带动， 8 月政府性基金支出同比 19.8% ，显著高于收入端。 第五， 从 8 月财政数据看：一是税收收入累计同比年内首次小幅转正，相较于非税的贡献有所上升，符合年初预算草案计划的降低非税收入依赖 度的大方向；二是和名义 GDP 中枢仍偏低匹配，前 8 个月无论是税收收入累计同比的 0.02% ，还是一般公共预算收入累计同比的 0.3% ，绝对增 速依明显较低。且 8 月装备制造业、现代服务业等行业税收贡献较大，随着"两新"基数抬升和地方政策资源环比减弱，后续设备和耐用消费品等 领域仍存在压力 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 9月前11日火力发电数据偏弱。中电联口径截至9月11日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂累计发电量同 比回落14.8%，同比读数降至年内低位，8月同比为-1.3%。中电联指出"电力需求季节性回落，化工等非电 需求维持刚需采购，市场交易活跃度一般"。不过单看火电可能低估发电数据，9月前两周三峡水电站入库流 量同比升至一年来高位，对应水力发电量贡献提升。 第二， 工业开工率涨跌互现，整体来说较8月变化不大。截至9月第二周，全国247家高炉开工率（期末值， 下同）同比增长5.6pct（前值同比6.8pct）；焦化企业开工率同比增长7.5pct（前值同比4.5pct）。PVC开 工率同比增长1.3pct（前值同比1.2pct）；苯乙烯开工率同比回升4.6pct（前值同比9.7pct）；涤纶长丝江 浙 织 机 开 工 率 同 比 回 落 3.8pct （ 前 值 同 比 -3.4pct ） 。 汽 车 半 钢 胎 开 工 率 同 比 回 落 5.7pct （ 前 值 同 比-6.2pct），全钢胎开工率同比回升9.2pc ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 8 月经济延续放缓。六大口径数据出口、工业、服务业、社零、投资、地产销售同比均不同程度低于前值。简单按生产法 （工增和服务业生产指数）估算 GDP 指数同比约为 4.80% ，结合支出法（工增和社零）估算 GDP 指数同比约为 4.55% ，两种方法均值为 4.67% ，低于同口径 7 月的 4.91% 。 8 月出口同比 4.4% ，低于前值的 7.2% 。工业增加值同比 5.2% ，低于前值的 5.7% 。服务业生产指数同比 5.6% ，低于前值的 5.8% 。社零同比 3.4% ，低于前值的 3.7% 。 第一， 8月经济延续放缓。六大口径数据出口、工业、服务业、社零、投资、地产销售同比均不同程度低于前值。简单按 生产法（工增和服务业生产指数）估算GDP指数同比约为4.80%，结合支出法（工增和社零）估算GDP指数同比约为 4.55%，两种方法均值为4.67%，低于同口径7月的4.91% 。 第二， 工业增加值同比5.2%，低于前值的5.7%。出口交货节奏的放缓是主要拖累，8月出口交货值同比为-0.4%，属于 年内首次负增长。出口交货值 ...

Group 1 - The performance of major asset classes since the beginning of 2025 has been led by precious metals, with COMEX gold rising by 38.8% and COMEX silver by 45.8% [1] - Emerging market stocks have also performed well, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 19.7% and the Vietnam VN30 Index up 38.7% [1] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with the NASDAQ rising by 14.7% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 20.5% [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar credit and the "soft decoupling" of asset classes are key themes driving asset performance [2] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping global supply chains, leading to a "backup" of supply and increased value for key metals and resources [2] - A new wave of technological revolution, particularly in renewable energy and artificial intelligence, is creating new demand for non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The expectation of US interest rate cuts has led to a rise in global stock markets, with Chinese technology assets leading the gains [4] - The G7 long-term bond yields have decreased, and the US dollar has weakened against most currencies, supporting the performance of commodities like gold and silver [5] - The recent performance of gold has shown a strong correlation with external markets, with London gold prices rising by 1.6% to $3,651 per ounce [6] Group 4 - The Chinese stock market has seen a return of high growth narratives, particularly in technology and real estate sectors, with the overall A-share index rising by 2.12% [12] - The automotive industry is projected to achieve stable growth, with a target of approximately 3% year-on-year growth in sales by 2025 [26] - The electric power equipment industry has set a target for an average revenue growth rate of around 6% from 2025 to 2026 [24] Group 5 - The recent economic data indicates a recovery in both actual and nominal GDP, with September's actual GDP growth estimated at around 4.76% [17] - The PPI is expected to show a slight recovery due to low base effects, with projections indicating a monthly decline of around -0.13% [19] - The liquidity environment is being closely monitored, with the central bank increasing base currency injections to stabilize market fluctuations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of social financing and credit growth in August, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate economic activity and improve credit demand, particularly in the household sector [1][6][15]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In August, social financing increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, aligning closely with market expectations of 2.53 trillion yuan [1][6]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Credit Performance - The increase in real credit was 623.3 billion yuan, showing significant improvement from July but still below historical averages for the same period [7][9]. - The year-on-year decrease in real credit was 417.8 billion yuan, indicating ongoing challenges in credit demand [7][9]. Corporate Credit - Corporate short-term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, the highest for the same period since 2017, driven by factors such as inventory replenishment and banks' preference for short-term loans under stable interest margins [9][10]. - Corporate medium and long-term loans rose by 470 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 20 billion yuan, suggesting a recovery in financing demand for major projects [9][10]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing increased by 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [3][10]. - Corporate bond financing rose by 134.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 36 billion yuan, reflecting increased costs and difficulties in issuing bonds [3][10]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans decreased by 9 billion yuan, but showed a year-on-year increase of 52.2 billion yuan, continuing a trend of improvement since April [3][12]. - The increase in non-discounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.3 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing patterns [3][12]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was 6%, up by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by a low base effect and increased corporate foreign exchange settlements [4][12]. - M2 growth rate remained stable at 8.8%, supported by increased fiscal spending, while household deposits showed a significant decrease [4][12]. Overall Economic Outlook - The financial data for August indicates signs of fiscal strength and a recovery in corporate financing demand, but low leverage willingness in the household sector remains a concern [15][6]. - Upcoming policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies and adjustments in real estate regulations, may influence household leverage willingness, with September and October data being critical for observation [15][6].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第四， 核心服务价格保持粘性。 8 月核心服务 CPI 同比 3.6% ，环比 +0.4% ，均持平于前值。住房项依旧是最大推力，业主等价租金环比回升至 0.4% ，前 值 0.3% ；酒店价格环比 +2.3% ，前值 -1% 。剔除住房的超级核心服务（ supercore ）环比回落至 +0.3% ，前值 +0.5% ；同比 +3.2% ，持平前值。基 于 8 月 CPI 数据， Cleveland Fed 预计 8 月核心 PCE 环比和同比分别为 0.3% 和 3% ，均要略高于前值。 第五， 简单来看，尽管 8 月美国通胀数据有所回升但没有超出预期：一是 CPI 符合预期，关税对核心商品一定程度的传导本来就在预期之内， 8 月继续排除了 不可控情形；二是服务项环比 0.4% 表面看具粘性，但其持续性不强，超级核心服务价格边际较上月放缓；三是考虑到 PCE 与 CPI 在权重与测度上的差异，在 PCE 口径中权重相对更高的分项如医疗保健服务和商品价格 8 月环比分别回落 0.1% 和 0.3% ，核心通胀在 P ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of a pilot program for the market-oriented allocation of factors in various regions of China, emphasizing the need for reform in the factor market to enhance economic efficiency and productivity [1][8]. Group 1: Reasons for Initiating Factor Market Reform - The factor market in China is less developed compared to commodity and service markets, necessitating reform to improve market efficiency [1][8]. - The pilot program is set to last for two years, aiming for completion by 2027, following previous top-level designs and plans established in 2020 and 2022 [1][8]. Group 2: Selected Pilot Cities - The pilot cities include key regions such as Beijing, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, aligning with national strategic development goals [1][9]. - The selected cities collectively account for over 25% of the national economic output in 2024, indicating their significant influence and potential for reform [1][10]. Group 3: Elements Involved in Marketization Reform - The reform encompasses various factors including technology, land, labor, data, capital, resources, and new types of factors such as computing power and spectrum [2][10]. - Specific initiatives include promoting technology transfer, deepening industrial land market reforms, facilitating labor mobility, and enhancing data application scenarios [2][10]. Group 4: Data Factor Marketization - The main approach for data factor marketization involves exploring circulation mechanisms and application scenarios to realize value [2][12]. - Key tasks include enhancing public data resource sharing, fostering collaborative innovation in data applications, and establishing data circulation trading mechanisms [2][12][14]. Group 5: Technology Factor Marketization - The focus is on creating a unified national technology market, including establishing regulatory frameworks and promoting interconnectivity among technology trading platforms [3][15]. - Initiatives include developing financial products to support technology transfer and enhancing international technology cooperation [3][15][16]. Group 6: Land Factor Marketization - The reform aims to increase flexibility in land resource usage, including deepening land management reforms and innovating industrial land supply [4][18]. - Strategies involve revitalizing underutilized land and promoting mixed-use land management to meet diverse industrial needs [4][19]. Group 7: Human Resource Factor Marketization - The reform emphasizes improving talent evaluation and compensation systems, enhancing public employment services, and fostering a conducive environment for talent mobility [6][20]. - Key initiatives include expanding job opportunities, strengthening employment services, and optimizing the market environment for human resources [6][21][22]. Group 8: Economic Impact of Factor Marketization Reform - The reform is seen as a crucial step in building a high-standard market system in China, addressing supply-demand imbalances, and enhancing micro-efficiency [7][23]. - It is expected to stimulate long-term investment opportunities in areas such as data asset formation, technology innovation, and land utilization [7][23].

第五， PMI 的两个价格指标均是连续三个月上行，其中隐含了"反内卷"政策初步见效的结论。 8 月的 PPI 数据初步支持了这一结论。政策方向仍较为明确， 7 月底的 2025 年全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座 谈会指出"巩固新能源汽车行业内卷式竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治理，以标准提升倒逼落后产 能退出" 。 第六， 9 月 CPI 、 PPI 在基数上均较为有利，在前期周度报告《今年经济节奏为何季末高、季初低》中， 我们基于第一周情况外推 9 月月度 CPI 、 PPI 同比分别为 0.15% 、 -2.55% ，即平减将会有改善。但这 一点还有待于继续观察后续几周数据。 10-11 月翘尾对同比周期上行的助力有所扩大。平减指数如果能先回 到 -1% 以内，再回到 -0.5% 以内，则对企业盈利、增值税、实际利率等环节的影响将会进一步形成，名义 增长和微观体感的改善预计会更明显一些。 第七， 在 8 月底报告《怎么观测流动性与市场定价的关系》中，我们指出，在狭义流动性带动的资产定价扩 张受估值约束后，如果广义流动性能够承接狭义流动性，这时权益资产会从流动性驱动阶段转向盈利驱动阶 段，盈利回升 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 8月出口表现大致平稳。从绝对值看，3218.1亿美元基本上是近月趋势值（7月为3217.8亿美元）； 从环比看，过去十年8月均值为0.9%，今年7月基数较高，8月环比0.1%算是正常；从同比看，去年8月是基 数高点之一，今年8月同比4.4%对应的两年平均增速和过去三个月均值大致相当。 第二， 从出口区域来看，美国和非美市场分化明显。对美出口走弱，对欧、日、东盟出口均高于前值。不含 对美出口的出口8月同比为11.2%，仅略低于前值的12.4%。占中国出口份额最高的区域分别是欧盟和东盟， 8月累计占比分别为17.7%和15.1%，其次是美国和拉美，分别为11.5%和8.0%。值得注意的是，对非洲出 口前8个月累计占比已达5.7%，8月同比为25.9%，是目前出口的结构性亮点之一。其背后存在基本面基础， 以处高增长阶段的东非为例，世行预测坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚、乌干达、卢旺达等国2025年的GDP增速达4.5- 7.0%。对越南出口同比31.0%，是目前出口的结构亮点之二，中国供应链是其工业部门的重要上游。 第三， 从出口商品来看，高低端产品分化 ...