Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4 个点至 49.3 （在报告《 7 月软数据放缓》中我们有过初步分析）；但中观景气面却出现小幅上行，景气扩张的行业 个数由 6 个小幅增至 7 个，这实际上也显示中观景气度不仅取决于量，也会受到价的影响。黑色、有色、金属制品、通用设备景气回升至扩张区间。 第二， 7 月景气改善的行业主要集中在两类，一是部分中游装备制造，二是部分原材料行业。前者包括通用和专用设备、电气机械、金属制品，我们理解或与 6 月底前下达 2025 年"两重"建设和中央预算内投资全部项目清单[1] 有关；后者主要包括黑色、有色、非金属矿，或与"反内卷"政策升温的影响有关，也与 行业出厂价格指数的上行对应， 7 月黑色、有色、非金属矿出厂价格指数环比分别上行 80.1 、 13.4 和 12.7 个点。 第三， 7 月景气明显回调的行业主要是三类：一是"以旧换新"类耐用消费品行业；二是出口依赖度较高的外向型行业；三是石化产业链，其变化背后的逻辑 线均较为清晰。（ 1 ）汽车、计算机通信电子景气环比 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 1993年以来经历了四轮通胀回落周期，前三轮主要背景依次为亚洲金融危机、全球次贷危机，以及欧债危机余波和国内产能周期叠加。本轮背景（2022- 2024 ） 主 要 是 房 地 产 周 期 下 台 阶 、 地 方 化 债 、 部 分 产 业 供 给 增 长 过 快 等 三 大 因 素 叠 加 。 过 去 三 轮 周 期 的 平 减 指 数 季 度 谷 底 读 数 分 别 为-1.61%、-1.35%、-0.28%，本轮平减指数于2024年一季度短暂触底，但后续走势仍较弱，今年二季度再度触及-1.2%的本轮周期低位。 第二， 为什么会出现这种情况？我们如果以CRB指数、南华综合指数两个指标的同比作为"外部"和"内部"的价格坐标，CRB同比谷底在2023年3月，后续整体震 荡上行，最新的2025年7月数据仍延续新高；南华综合指数同比自2024年三季度出现再度下行，并在2025年5月一度创下本轮新低。若以"GDP平减指数 VS 螺 铜比"（螺纹钢和铜分别代表内外定价因素）来观测，其经验走势吻合度也较高，两 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 第二， 税收政策调整的目的是什么？ 第三， 此次税收政策调整对金融市场有什么影响？ 第四， 后续还有哪些关注点？ 正文 这次国债等债券利息收入增值税政策调整具体怎么调？ zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 这次国债等债券利息收入增值税政策调整具体怎么调？ 根据财政部发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，本次政策有三个要点： 一是从 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债、金融债券的利息收入恢复征 收增值税。 此前投资者投资国债、地方债、金融债等债券获得的利息收入适用的增值税率为 0% ，即无需缴纳利息收入 对应的增值税。在这一政策发布后，投资者在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后投资新发行的国债等债券所获利息收 入需要缴纳增值税，其中金融机构自营适用的税率为 6% ，公募基金、理财、券商资管等广义基金产品适用 的税率为 3% 。 由 于 增 值 税 为 价 外 税 ， 债 券 价 格 为 含 税 价 格 ， 需 做 调 整 ， 金 融 机 构 自 营 调 整 后 的 增 值 税 率 为 6% ...

gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 根据美国劳工部 8 月 1 日公布数据 ， 7 月美国就业数据显著 走低 。 7 月新增非农 7.3 万人，低于预期的 10.4 万人。 此外，前两月数据显著下修， 5 月和 6 月数据共下修 25.8 万人， 5 月数据下修 12.5 万人至 1.9 万人， 6 月数据下修 13.3 万人至 1.4 万人。 由于几天前公布的美国二季度 GDP 数据、 7 月"小非农" ADP 就业数据均比较高，导致预期差就更明显。 第二， 为何 非农数据波动那么大 ？ 实际上，近年非农数据的波动变得非常频繁，修正幅度有时也比较大，我们理解其背后可能"一套已经存在技术问题的统计方 法 vs 越来越复杂的现实"。一则是企业生死模型（ NBD ）的技术性失真。 NBD 模型假定企业新成立与倒闭所带来的就业净增长是相对稳定的，但近年的复杂宏 观环境打破了这一假设；二是季节调整技术的落后也是部分月份数据偏差的另一个原因， 在经济发生结构性变化时，季节性调整模型可能无法立即适应，从而使得 初始就业数据偏离实际情况， 带来 后续 大幅 修正 ；三是 BLS 调查 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 中电联口径截至7月24日纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比增长3.3%，同比读数升至 年内高位，高于6月同比的-1.8%，不过其中包含高温天气影响。入夏以来不少省市电网用电负荷创历史新 高，江苏电网最高负荷较春季平均增长近4000万千瓦，约90%增量负荷为空调制冷用电。 第二， 可能和价格上涨预期有关，上游工业原材料部门开工率多数同比好于前值。截至7月第四周，全国247 家高炉开工率（期末值，下同）同比增长1.2pct（前月同比0.7pct）；焦化企业开工率同比0.7pct（前月同 比-0.4pct）。PVC开工率同比回升3.5pct（前月同比-1.6pct）；苯乙烯开工率同比回升11.0pct（前月同 比 11.5pct ） ； 涤 纶 长 丝 江 浙 织 机 开 工 率 同 比 回 落 7.8pct （ 前 月 同 比 -8.4pct ） ； 山 东 地 炼 开 工 率 同 比-1.8pct（前月同比-4.8pct）。汽车半钢胎开工率同比回落4.7pct（前月同比-1.3pct），全钢胎开 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第七， 食品价格涨跌互现，其中猪肉、蔬菜价格稳中有升。7月全国猪肉平均批发价（月均值）环比回升 1.2%，全国28种重点蔬菜价格环比回升1.4%。7种重点监测水果平均批发价、黄玉米期货结算价环比分别 为-5.0%、-2.3% 。 第八， 简单总结，7月价格面信号整体好转。在反内卷改善供需比的预期下，内需定价的上游原材料和部分 新产业产品上行斜率扩大。价格从低位上涨是有积极意义的，它有助于助推企业原材料补库行为，形成企业行 为和价格的正循环。但需求端的承接也较为关键，政治局会议强调的"两重"项目三季度能否发力较为重要。 同时，最终决定中期供求关系的不止是"反内卷"，还包括地方政府投资的长效机制、产业投资的动态平衡机 制、居民部门两表的正循环等，预计"十五五"期间的政策将作出进一步的部署 。 正文 7月BPI工业原材料价格指数小幅回升，能源价格受供给影响先扬后抑，有色分项价格收涨。截至7月31日， 生意社BPI指数录得869点，相较6月末回升1.4%。其中能源、有色价格（月环比）分别为0.1%、3.1%。 第一， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% during the July 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the fifth pause since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024. The decision to not lower rates was in line with market expectations, although two officials voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1][8]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC's decision to keep rates unchanged aligns with market expectations, with two officials dissenting for a rate cut [1][8]. - The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][8]. Economic Outlook - The July FOMC statement showed a slight weakening in the description of economic growth but did not indicate a dovish shift. Employment remains solid, inflation is still high, and the unemployment rate is low [2][9]. - The statement changed the description of economic growth from "solid expansion" to "moderate slowdown" for the first half of the year, consistent with GDP data released on July 30 [2][10]. Powell's Remarks - Powell's stance on future rate cuts remains cautious, emphasizing a "wait and see" approach. He noted that upcoming employment and inflation reports will inform the September meeting's decisions [3][11]. - Despite a low unemployment rate, Powell acknowledged that inflation is above target, suggesting a moderately restrictive monetary policy is appropriate [3][13]. Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut decreased significantly, with the probability dropping from 63.3% to 41.2% [6][18]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.37%, and the dollar index increased to 99.82, indicating a potential rebound in the dollar [6][18]. GDP Data Insights - The U.S. Q2 GDP showed a significant rebound with a quarter-over-quarter annualized growth rate of +3%, surpassing expectations of +2.4%. However, this rebound included technical factors due to a sharp decline in imports [5][15]. - Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew by only +1.2%, the lowest since late 2022, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [5][16]. Investment Implications - The overall economic data suggests that while there is resilience in the labor market, underlying demand is weakening, which may affect future monetary policy decisions [4][14].

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 第五， 建筑业环比走弱。统计局指出"近期部分地区持续高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等不利因素影响"；除此之外， 我们理解和地产销售回款压力传导、财政支出中基建相关分项放缓有关。6月交通运输支出、农林水支出增速 均偏低；除收入端约束外，和同期是特别国债支出大月有关。后续有待于超长期特别国债、政策性金融工具的 带动作用逐步上来。 第六， BCI较6月下行1.6个点，由于BCI在算法上包含同比特征，因此值得重视。从分项来看：（1）BCI"销 售下降、利润上升"的指数分布符合实际GDP放缓、名义GDP改善逻辑；（2）消费品和中间品价格前瞻指数 意外双放缓，前瞻指数反映企业对6个月之后价格的预期，这意味着尽管短期价格反弹，但价格中枢中期上升 的预期尚不巩固；（3）企业融资环境指数走低，这与同处季末之后的4月数据特征上较为相似，信用扩张有 待于进一步形成。BCI与万得全A指数在历史上的走势大致一致，但今年5月之后背离明显（图），可能和同 期股票市场风险偏好驱动特征较强有关。 第七， 7月的EPMI、PMI、BCI指向一致。在中期报告《穿越减速带，布局新均衡》中，我们指出下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, focusing on "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts" [1][6][7] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with key economic indicators performing well and a strong emphasis on maintaining economic recovery momentum [1][9][10] Economic Policy - The meeting highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to be "continuous, stable, flexible, and predictable," aiming for sustained growth and maximizing policy effects [2][10][11] - Emphasis is placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability [11][12] Consumption and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of expanding service consumption and stimulating effective investment, particularly in the context of weak fixed asset investment growth [3][12] - The "old-for-new" policy has already released some elasticity in durable goods consumption, and there is a call to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [3][12] Supply-Side Policies - The meeting calls for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, while also addressing issues of local government debt and hidden debts [4][13] - Policies will focus on promoting high-quality development and addressing overcapacity in key industries [4][12] Capital Market - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery [5][14] - There is a focus on ensuring that the capital market functions effectively and supports long-term investment [5][14] Transition from 14th to 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlines the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on urban renewal and managing hidden debts [5][14] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving long-term economic goals is highlighted [7][8]