深度 | 美债，还能买么？【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Group 1 - The announcement of reciprocal tariff policies has led to increased uncertainty in international trade, causing a decline in investor confidence in the U.S. government and a "sell-off" in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% [1][4][19] - The sell-off primarily involved long-term Treasuries, particularly those with maturities of five years or more, while short-term Treasury yields remained stable [1][4][6] - Non-official investors, including overseas and domestic investors, are likely responsible for the sell-off, with significant outflows from Japanese residents and large redemptions from U.S. bond funds [6][8][11] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's monthly cumulative deficit reached a new high since the 2022 fiscal year, indicating that future fiscal deficits may be difficult to improve if current spending structures remain unchanged [2][20] - The supply of Treasuries is currently constrained by the debt ceiling, with the Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance expected to be exhausted by August [2][24] - Long-term projections suggest that U.S. debt levels are unlikely to decrease, with ongoing discussions about tax cuts and debt ceiling increases potentially leading to higher future Treasury supply [20][26][27] Group 3 - Despite the recent sell-off, there is potential for U.S. Treasuries to strengthen if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts, which could lead to a decline in overall Treasury yields [3][29][30] - The current depreciation of the dollar makes Treasuries relatively "cheap," and the Fed's actions could improve market confidence in the U.S. economy, further supporting the Treasury market [30][31] - Short-term Treasuries may outperform due to rising term premiums and increased supply of long-term bonds, which could steepen the yield curve [31]