我们正在接近ASIC的顶峰？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future of custom ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) design, suggesting that the industry may be nearing its peak due to rising costs and strategic considerations in chip design [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Over 100 companies are developing their own chips for various applications, including smartphones, automobiles, and Wi-Fi routers, indicating a significant trend towards custom silicon [1]. - The number of semiconductor suppliers has drastically decreased from around 2000 to nearly 200, leading to a loss of negotiation power for even the largest customers [1]. - The shift towards custom silicon is primarily driven by the consolidation in the semiconductor industry over the past 20 years [1]. Group 2: Economic Forces - The costs associated with chip design, particularly for advanced chips, have been steadily increasing, raising questions about the viability of custom designs [2]. - Companies like Microsoft and Meta are reportedly reassessing their custom chip design efforts, suggesting a potential slowdown in the trend [2]. - The article questions whether every company truly needs its own CPU, indicating that many may scale back their ambitions [2]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Custom chips are only advantageous when companies can control the software that runs on them; without this control, the benefits of custom design diminish [2]. - The article highlights that while the custom silicon industry is not yet at its peak, it is approaching it, with large AI companies and global automakers still needing to make decisions regarding custom chip development [3].